NIA Report: S&P Downgrades US Debt Rating

 

S&P just announced late this evening that they have downgraded the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+ with a negative outlook.

 

NIA is absolutely shocked by this. What shocks us is just how long it took them to make this downgrade. Just like how S&P and Moody's didn't downgrade subprime CDOs until the mortgage-backed bonds they held were practically worthless, S&P waited for U.S. debt obligations to reach five times GDP and for the U.S. dollar to lose 84% of its purchasing power over the course of a single decade. The U.S. was a hair away from defaulting on its debt this week if the debt ceiling wasn't raised, yet it still had a AAA rating.

 

NIA believes that a AAA rating should be reserved for countries that have budget surpluses, low levels of debt that could easily be paid off without printing money, and low levels of inflation. The U.S. had a cash budget deficit last year of $1.3 trillion, but once you include increases to unfunded liabilities, our real budget deficit was approximately $5 trillion. Even if Americans were taxed 100% of their income it wouldn't be enough to balance the budget.

 

It is hard to imagine a fiscal situation worse than this, but the credit ratings agencies have justified giving the U.S. a AAA rating based on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and the Federal Reserve's ability to monetize our deficits and debts by printing money. If it wasn't for our printing press and the world's willingness to accept and hoard the dollars we print in return for the real products and commodities they produce, the U.S. credit rating would be junk.

 

S&P claims that their reason for downgrading the U.S. debt rating at this time is because, "the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge". According to S&P, it is because our two political parties are so far apart that we weren't able to pass a bill with anything but modest spending cuts. The reality is, the Republicans and Democrats aren't far apart at all. Neither parties are serious about cutting spending and the underlying fundamentals of both their proposed bills were exactly the same. The Republicans that American tea party supporters elected to office have broken their promises to make major spending cuts and have accomplished absolutely nothing positive since entering office.

 

Our country just had an unbelievable opportunity to dramatically cut government spending in a last ditch effort to prevent hyperinflation. Instead, our government passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling that had no real spending cuts at all. The mainstream media tried to spin the bill into being a victory for U.S. tea party supporters due to the purported "spending cuts" that it contained. The truth is, government spending is set to rise every single year until the dollar is worthless. The $2.1 trillion in phony spending cuts are only tiny reductions to large spending increases and none of them will begin until early 2013 when we will need to once again raise the debt ceiling. Even if the government in early 2013 decides to follow through with them, rising interest payments on our national debt will mean substantially larger budget deficits than what are projected today.

 

Credit ratings agencies have absolutely zero credibility left and we believe that with hyperinflation coming soon, credit ratings will become a thing of the past. To capitalize on this, on May 23rd NIA suggested to you put options in the only publicly traded pure credit ratings play, Moody's (MCO). On May 23rd with MCO trading for $37.90, NIA suggested to you MCO November 2011 $35 put options at $1.98. MCO today closed at $32.88 and our MCO put option suggestion finished the day with a last trade of $5.20 for a huge gain of 163% in a little over two months. NIA is very pleased that we figured out the #1 most profitable way to capitalize on the major fundamental shift that is taking place in this industry and as far as we are aware, NIA is the only organization in the world that suggested MCO puts in recent months.

With the stock market down big in recent weeks, NIA believes that this evening's news is already mostly factored into stock prices. With the Fed Funds Rate having been left near zero for over two years, the world is flooded with excess liquidity of U.S. dollars and there is no chance of the stock market crashing like in late-2008/early-2009. In fact, the recent downward move in the stock market means the Federal Reserve is likely to soon implement additional monetary inflation measures and will leave the Fed Funds Rate near zero permanently.

 

The GDP was already on its way to becoming negative in the second half of 2011 and if the U.S. wants to avoid a debt default later this decade, it needs the Federal Reserve to print enough money to see at least 5% annual nominal GDP growth. It's not just the Federal Government that needs GDP to grow, but most cities and states will default on their debts if GDP doesn't grow rapidly. Cities and states don't have printing presses so unless the U.S. government wants to bail them all out like the European Union is bailing out Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, it needs to create GDP growth even if that means the Federal Reserve eliminating interest payments on the $1.6 trillion in excess reserves held by banks and taxing banks who don't lend the money.

 

NIA prays that Americans don't make the mistake of buying U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven, as they are now the riskiest asset of all. If U.S. Treasuries rally next week, it will only be temporary and will be followed by the largest and sharpest reversal in history with a crash in Treasury prices and an explosion in yields like never seen before. Most Keynesian economists will likely forecast rising Treasury prices despite the U.S. debt crisis, because they claim the bond markets in other countries are tiny compared to ours and there simply is no other place to park safe haven money. In our opinion, there is no reason to own the fiat currency denominated bonds of any country or company. Gold and silver are the only true safe havens and it is our belief that by the end of this year, the U.S. public will begin investing into gold and silver in droves as they realize that although we avoided a debt default for now, a debt default by inflation is still on its way. The largest ever short-term rally in precious metals and mining stocks is ahead.

America's Oil Price Inflation Crisis is Yet to Come

NIA is very disturbed by President Obama's decision to sell off oil from the U.S. emergency oil reserve, in an attempt to drive down oil prices. One week ago it was announced that the U.S. and other oil-consuming nations that are a part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will begin releasing 60 million barrels of oil from their reserves, with 30 million barrels coming from the U.S. government-owned reserve. They hoped that by flooding the market with excess supply, they would cause an artificial forced liquidation of oil futures contract holders who bought using leverage.

 

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the world's largest government-owned stockpile of emergency crude oil reserves and is maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). It holds 727 million barrels of oil reserves at four different sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Considering that the U.S. is releasing 30 million barrels of oil from these reserves, we are reducing the size of our emergency reserve by 4.1%.

After Obama's decision was announced on June 22nd, crude oil prices originally dipped as much as $5.71 per barrel from $95.41 per barrel down to a low of $89.70 per barrel on June 23rd. Oil prices declined slightly more during the next two trading days, reaching a low this past Monday of $89.61 per barrel and closing Monday at $90.61 per barrel. However, oil prices have surged $4.81 during the past three days and are currently $95.42 per barrel. Oil has recovered the entire dip that came after Obama's decision was announced and is now a penny higher than before his announcement. Unlike 2008 when most oil futures contract holders were hedge funds using leverage in an attempt to make short-term profits, today most oil investors are much stronger hands who bought with cash, because the world is now flooded with dollars thanks to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

It certainly wasn't worth jeopardizing the homeland security of this country by reducing our emergency oil reserve by 4.1%, just to see a $4 reduction in oil prices that lasted for only 3 days. If the White House had any faith whatsoever in Bernanke's assertion that rising oil prices are only transitory, there would be no reason to release 30 million barrels of oil from our emergency reserve. The rising oil prices we have experienced so far is far from an emergency. The emergency will come soon when the world turns its back on the U.S. dollar and we see a rapid decline in its purchasing power. The emergency will be here when the U.S. can no longer import oil from foreigners at any price due to hyperinflation, and we are forced to live with only the oil produced in this country.

At any time that they choose, China has the power to set off in our country the economic equivalent of a nuclear bomb. China can at any time announce that they are no longer going to buy U.S. treasuries, but they are going to take their $2 trillion in U.S. dollar reserves and use them to buy gold. The price of gold would double overnight, with the U.S. dollar immediately losing half of its purchasing power. The yuan would then skyrocket in purchasing power, automatically giving China the world's largest economy with the Chinese GDP soaring past U.S. GDP. There would be a massive rush out of the U.S. dollar with our trading partners unwilling to export any oil to us.

The U.S. currently produces only 5.5 million barrels of oil per day, but consumes about 19.3 million barrels of oil per day, with total input into refineries of 14.7 million barrels of oil per day. This means the U.S. currently needs to import 9.2 million barrels of oil per day. U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles are currently 359.5 million barrels or enough to last for 24 days without any domestic production. In the event of hyperinflation where the U.S. is cut off from oil imports, if we were forced to live off of our own oil production of 5.5 million barrels of oil per day, our commercial stockpiles would be gone in 39 days.

Without an emergency oil reserve, in the event of a major oil shortage due to hyperinflation, after a period of just 39 days, farmers won't have enough oil to produce food, manufacturing plants won't have enough oil to process and package food, and logistics companies won't have enough oil to get finished food products into our supermarkets. This is why we have an emergency oil reserve, to prevent store shelves from becoming empty in our supermarkets due to a fuel shortage.

It takes 13 days for oil from our emergency reserve to begin entering the market and once it does, the most it can add to the market on a daily basis is 4.4 million barrels of oil. Therefore, in a crisis we must first use only our commercial stockpiles for 13 days, which would cause our commercial reserve to decline down to 239.9 million barrels of oil. Beginning on the 14th day of a crisis, 4.4 million barrels of oil per day can come into the market from our emergency reserve with 4.8 million barrels of oil per day entering the market from our commercial reserve.

After 50 additional days, our commercial reserve will be depleted and all that will be left is 507 million barrels of oil in our emergency reserve. That will give us 115 more days where we can withdraw 4.4 million barrels of oil per day, but the U.S. will be forced to reduce its daily oil consumption by 33% during those 115 days. This is based off of an emergency reserve of 727 million barrels of oil. With Obama this month prematurely releasing 30 million barrels of oil from our emergency reserve, we will actually only have 108 days where the U.S. will be able to consume 2/3 of its normal oil consumption, after 63 days of full oil consumption.

The solution to high oil prices is not more government intervention, but is less government interference in the free market. Instead of trying to manipulate oil prices down using artificial methods that will only last temporarily, the U.S. government should look at the root cause of rising oil prices. Oil is rising due to the U.S. government's deficit spending and the Federal Reserve's willingness to monetize our deficits and debts. If they want to see lower oil prices, the government should start out by eliminating the DOE. The DOE was created in 1977 to make the U.S. less dependent on oil imports. In 1977, we imported 44% of the oil used in U.S. refineries. Today, we import 63% of the oil used in U.S. refineries. Eliminating the DOE would save this country $27 billion annually.

Priced in terms of real money (gold), oil prices haven't been rising at all. The Federal Reserve's QE2, in which it printed $600 billion out of thin air, has created artificial demand for oil. If it wasn't for the Federal Reserve working tirelessly trying to prevent a much needed recession, Americans would be cutting back on oil consumption and oil prices would be declining. If the free market was allowed to operate, falling oil prices would make it easier for Americans to live with the real unemployment rate currently at 22.3%.

Bernanke to Invent New Term for Printing Money

When the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) reported their latest consumer price index (CPI) inflation data last week, everybody in the mainstream media worked tirelessly to spin the data in order to proclaim that U.S. price inflation is not a problem. Most articles in the media reported that inflation slowed in May due to falling gas prices. The truth is, gas prices rose last month and U.S. price inflation is spiraling out of control.


Price inflation based on the CPI on a year-over-year basis rose during the month of May to 3.57%, up from 3.16% in April, 2.68% in March, 2.11% in February, 1.63% in January, 1.5% in December, and 1.1% in November. The official rate of price inflation has more than tripled over the past 6 months. Yes, maybe the rate of year-over-year price inflation rose by slightly less in May over April, than it did in April over March, but this isn't good news at all. This U.S. dollar is still rapidly losing its purchasing power and the rate at which it is declining in purchasing power is accelerating.

On an unadjusted basis, gas prices rose 3.6% in the month of May. The media is reporting gas prices based on the BLS's seasonal adjustments. Only with the BLS's deceptive seasonal adjustments did gas prices decline by 2% in the month of May. The BLS's seasonal adjustments will actually reverse starting in the month of July and add to reported gasoline prices. NIA predicts that come August when the BLS releases its July CPI report, the media will begin focusing on unadjusted gasoline prices because the unadjusted gain will be less than the adjusted one. The media always reports the data that supports their agenda and ignores the data that works against it.

The media is obviously just saying what the U.S. government wants them to say. Larry Summers, a Keynesian economist who served for 5 years last decade as President of Harvard and was up until late-2010 director of President Obama's White House National Economic Council, just said last week that, "the underlying rate of inflation is still trending downwards". The media's favorite economist Paul Krugman, a Keynesian who has an op-ed column in the New York Times, said last week that, "There’s really nothing here to shake my view that deflation, not inflation, is the threat."

Krugman, who has been calling for massive price deflation the whole entire time that NIA has been predicting massive price inflation, is refusing to admit he has been wrong and is telling all Americans to ignore rapidly rising food and energy prices because he claims they are too volatile. He is telling the world to focus solely on the core CPI, which ignores food and energy, the two items that Americans need most to live and survive. Core CPI is weighed heavily by rents and America's Real Estate bubble still isn't done deflating. The only purpose of having a core CPI is for Keynesian economists like Krugman to use it to mislead Americans and deceive them into believing that inflation is not a problem.

Core CPI was an invention of the Nixon administration, which right there should tell you all you need to know about it. President Nixon's idea for creating core CPI, was to deceive Americans about price inflation by excluding the items that were rising the most, which he would justify by calling these items "too volatile". NIA has predicted from the very beginning that inflation will not effect all goods and services equally and that as inflation begins to spiral out of control, inflation would gravitate most towards the prices of the items that Americans need the most, and there is nothing that Americans need more than food and agricultural products, and to a lesser extent energy.

Whenever the mainstream media reports about global inflation and they show a map of the world, the map always shows massive inflation in Middle Eastern and Asian countries, with the U.S. having the least price inflation. The truth is, inflation in Middle Eastern and Asian countries isn't many times worse than the U.S., it is just that their governments are many times more honest and aren't as advanced in manipulating economic statistics as our government is. While all of the headlines from major American news organizations about U.S. inflation said last week that inflation is slowing and not a problem, those same news organizations wrote articles about Chinese inflation being at a new 34-month high of 5.5%. The fact is, official U.S. price inflation is also at its highest level in nearly three years and our real price inflation rate is actually higher than China's reported rate of price inflation.

Based on the BLS's CPI, year-over-year U.S. price inflation in the month of May of 3.57% was the highest year-over-year price inflation rate since October of 2008, right before the global financial crisis. If it wasn't for the global financial crisis of late-2008/early-2009 and the world's mistake of liquidating real assets and hoarding fiat U.S. dollars as a safe haven, it is likely that the official rate of U.S. price inflation would already be in the double-digits today. NIA estimates the real rate of U.S. price inflation, minus geometric weighting and hedonics, to currently be approximately 7.5% on a year-over-year basis. It is possible that the real U.S. price inflation rate will reach double digits in the second half of 2011. That will be devastating to the U.S. economy because at that point it will just about guarantee that the Federal Reserve will have to raise the federal funds rate to north of 10% by the middle of this decade.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet just reached a brand new record of $2.832 trillion, up from $2.815 trillion in the prior week, as we approach the end of QE2 at the end of June. The stock market is already anticipating the end of QE2 with the Dow Jones currently down over 900 points from its high at the end of April. The declining stock market is pretty much sowing the seeds for a QE3. After all, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn't want to see the phony U.S. economic recovery blow up in smoke.

Bernanke will do everything possible to disguise QE3 and will never admit to there being a QE3. Remember, this is the same Federal Reserve Chairman who lied to every single American on '60 Minutes' when he said, "We're not printing money." That is exactly what QE2 is, printing money, but just like how Bernanke won't admit to printing money, Bernanke is now going to retire the term "quantitative easing" and come up with a new term for the Fed's latest destructive policy of creating massive monetary inflation.

College Conspiracy: College Education is a Scam Says New Documentary

NIA has officially released the most comprehensive documentary ever produced about higher education in the U.S. NIA's hour-long documentary called 'College Conspiracy' exposes the facts and truth about America's college education system. 'College Conspiracy' was produced over a six-month period by NIA's team of expert Austrian economists with the help of thousands of NIA members who contributed their ideas and personal stories for the film. NIA believes the U.S. college education system is a scam that turns vulnerable young Americans into debt slaves for life.

Food and Energy Inflation is Not Transitory

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake on Wensday held his first press conference in history. The press conference took place shortly after the Fed announced its decision to leave the Fed Funds Rate at a record low of 0% to 0.25%, where it has been for an unprecedented 28 months. The U.S. economy is flooded with U.S. dollars and is close to overdosing on excess liquidity. The fact that our financial markets are not falling on the possibility of the Fed not unleashing QE3 immediately at the end of QE2, shows that we could be on the verge of hyperinflation with or without QE3.

The Federal reserve currently has a mandate of both maintaining price stability and facilitating job creation. However, central banks don't have the ability to create real employment. If any jobs happen to be created as a result of a central bank's policies, they are only temporary jobs created due to the errors and distortions of phony asset bubbles. All phony asset bubbles that are fueled by monetary inflation eventually burst, sending unemployment through the roof.

Almost every major central bank besides the Federal Reserve, understands the truth about job creation, and has a mandate that focuses solely on keeping price inflation low. The Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada and the bank of New Zealand all have mandates that are entirely about low inflation and don't even mention the creation of jobs or the rate of employment. Bernanke said on Wednesday that, "while it is very, very important for us to try to help the economy create jobs and to support the recovery, I think every central banker understands that keeping inflation low and stable is absolutely essential to a successful economy."

Bernanke has decided to go down a route that no central banker has ever gone before. Bernanke has literally invented countless ways to create inflation that nobody else has ever thought of. If keeping inflation low was ever Bernanke's slightest concern, the Fed Funds Rate would currently be north of 5% and the U.S. economy would be in a steep recession. Bernanke has never once thought about keeping inflation low. He has literally implemented every measure he could possibly think of to create as much inflation as possible, while outright lying to the American public and saying that he isn't printing money and that inflation is under control.

Bernanke would like the public to believe that his policies of expanding the money supply through cheap and easy money will cause the U.S. economy to recover and unemployment to decline back to pre-crisis levels, and that right before price inflation spirals out of control, he can raise interest rates and prevent massive price inflation without disrupting the recovery. Unfortunately, this is impossible because the recovery isn't real and massive price inflation is already here. Bernanke's policies may have created 1 million artificial jobs since December of 2009, after 8.75 million jobs were lost in the previous two years, but he did this at the expense of 310 million Americans already seeing double-digit percentage increases in food and energy prices.

Since after the real estate burst in late-2008, the primary economic concern of Americans has been finding a stable job in order to make mortgage payments and put food on the table. Under the pressure of Congress, the Fed printed enough money to prevent a much needed recession that would be healthy for the long-term U.S. economy. In its attempt to reinflate the Real Estate bubble, the Fed has been destroying the free market and creating new economic distortions, which caused an artificial bounce in the rate of employment. Unfortunately, when you add together the money the Fed has either printed or committed for bailouts and stimulus programs, over $4 million has been spent for each job created. The Fed would have been better off just crediting the bank accounts of unemployed Americans with the average U.S. income.

When asked about rising gas prices, NIA is very happy that Chairman Bernanke acknowledged that gas prices "have risen quite significantly" and are "creating a great deal of financial hardship for a lot of people". Bernanke admitted that gas is a "necessity" as "people need to drive to work" for the artificial jobs Bernanke created at a cost of $4 million per job. However, Bernanke seemed to be confused when he said "higher gas prices add to inflation". The truth is, Bernanke's zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing are the inflation, and inflation leads to higher gas prices.

Bernanke is directly responsible for gas prices rising back to $3.87 per gallon, yet refuses to admit it. Bernanke placed the blame on the growing global and emerging market economies and their strong demand for oil. He said that America's demand for oil is going down, which NIA believes is actually due to the U.S. dollar losing its purchasing power and Americans seeing their standard of living decline. Bernanke said there is nothing that he can do about rising oil and gas prices "without derailing growth entirely". The truth is, Bernanke already derailed growth entirely when he derailed the free market. It is impossible to see real economic growth when a government and central bank is interfering in every aspect of the economy and impeding the free market in every possible way. All nominal GDP growth in the U.S., along with growth in retail sales, is solely due to inflation. Even when the government adjusts GDP and retail sales growth to the rate of inflation, it is based off of the consumer price index, which NIA believes is currently understating price inflation by approximately 4%.

Although Bernanke denies he has the ability to reduce gas prices, he claims he can prevent "gas prices from passing into other prices and wages throughout the economy and creating a broader inflation which will be much more difficult to extinguish." Bernanke obviously doesn't want Americans to see higher wages because he believes it could lead to broader inflation, but NIA believes rising wages would be a good thing. Inflation hurts Americans most when the rate of inflation is far outpacing wage increases. The fact is, the U.S. is already experiencing broad inflation even without wage increases.

Bernanke's brand new favorite word as of late seems to be "transitory", which he used about a dozen times during his press conference. Despite what Bernanke says, NIA strongly believes that rising food and gas prices are not transitory. Bernanke likes the word "transitory" because he can use it to try and pretend that rising food and gas prices are only just a temporary phenomenon and that their current high levels aren't here to stay. Many Americans can remember the day 40 years ago when a can of Coca-Cola cost a dime and a Hershey chocolate bar cost a nickel, with a gallon of gas back then costing only thirty-five cents. Have rising food and gas prices over the past four decades been transitory?

NIA first predicted two years ago in its documentary 'Hyperinflation Nation', that rising food and gas prices would soon become the primary concern of all American citizens as a result of the Fed's dangerous and destructive monitary policies. Bernanke back then claimed that inflation would not be a problem and said that the U.S. risked deflation. If Bernanke has been so wrong about the inflation that Americans are faced with today, NIA doesn't see how anybody can possibly believe that Bernanke will be right and that current high food and gas prices aren't here to stay. In our opinion, the food and gas price inflation that Americans have experienced over the past 40 years, is likely to occur all over again during the next 4 years. NIA believes that 4 years from now, Americans will look back at the good old days of having cheap $4 a gallon gas.

The last thing the U.S. government wants is for the American public to realize that Bernanke is responsible for rising food and gas prices. If the public demanded to end the Federal Reserve, the government will no longer be able to spend recklessly knowing that the Fed will be there to monetize their deficit spending. In an attempt to make up excuses for rising gas prices and deflect attention away from the Fed, Congress has been pressuring the U.S. Attorney General to investigate the matter. Attorney General Eric Holder just announced the formation of the Oil and Gas Price Fraud Working Group. The stated purpose of this working group is to monitor the oil and gas markets for potential violations of criminal or civil laws to safeguard against unlawful consumer harm.

NIA considers this to be complete insanity. Any government interference in the oil markets will only drive oil prices up even higher. Oil prices are rising solely do to supply and demand. Demand is going through the roof because the Federal Reserve is creating a lot of inflation, and inflation always gravitates to the goods that Americans need the most to live and survive. Oil supplies are falling because President Obama has ordered U.S. troops to occupy Libya. In the past we at least made up excuses to invade countries like Iraq over oil by claiming they had weapons of mass destruction. Today, the U.S. government doesn't even bother. Obama campaigned as an anti-war President, saying he would bring our troops home from the middle-east. Instead, he has increased our middle-east troop levels, and the sheep who voted for him are showing absolutely no signs of outrage.

http://inflation.us/