HOT JOBS FOR THE 21st CENTURY

Over the 2000-2010 period, total employment is projected to increase by 22.2 million jobs. From jobs in farming, fishing, and forestry to jobs in management, business, and finance, every major occupational group will experience some amount of job growth. Smaller employment gains, like those projected in production occupations (750,000 jobs) and those in installation, maintenance, and repair occupations (662,000 jobs) will be dwarfed by the gains expected in professional and related occupations (7.0 million jobs) and those in service occupations (5.1 million jobs).

In addition to the employment gains mentioned above, there will also be increases in labor force participation over the 2000-2010 period. The number of women in the labor force is projected to increase from 65.6 million in 2000 to 75.5 million in 2010--an increase of 15.1 percent. The number of men in the labor force is projected to increase from 75.2 million in 2000 to 82.2 million in 2010--a 9.3 percent increase. By 2010, women are projected to account for 48 percent of the total labor force.

As women's share of the labor force continues to climb, it is important for women to be aware of the jobs that will have the fastest growth, the jobs with the largest numerical increases, and the education and training necessary to secure one of these jobs. Fastest job growth refers to the percentage change in employment within a particular occupation over a specific period of time. Numerical job growth refers to the total number of jobs created within an occupation over a specific period of time.

The pay offered by these growth occupations should also be considered when choosing a job or career. While wage projections by occupations are not available, a look at the median weekly earnings of wage and salary workers who usually work full time, by occupation, provides additional job resource information.

Table 1 shows employment by major occupational groups in 2000 and projections for 2010. Table 2 shows the occupations with the fastest job growth over the 2000-2010 period. Table 3 shows the occupations with the largest numerical job growth over the 2000-2010 period. Table 4 shows the median weekly earnings in 2001 for some of the occupations expected to have fast job growth or large numerical job growth over the 2000-2010 period. If employment is projected to increase 36 percent or more, a job is considered to grow much faster than average; an increase of 21 to 35 percent, faster than average; an increase of 10 to 20 percent, growth about as fast as average; an increase of 3 to 9 percent, more slowly than average; an increase of zero to 2 percent, little or no change; and a decrease of 1 percent or more, a decline (see Table 1).

Table 1
Employment by Major Occupational Group, 2000 and Projected 2010
(numbers in thousands)
Text Version
      Employment            Change
Occupational group                                          2000     2010            Number     Percent
                              
Total, all occupations     1                                 45,594     167,754            22,160     15.2
                              
Management, business,                             
   and financial occupations                                15,519     17,635            2,115     13.6
Professional and related    occupations               26,758     33,709            6,952     26
Service occupations                                           26,075     31,163            5,088     19.5
Sales and related occupations                            15,513     17,365            1,852     11.9
Office and administrative                             
   support occupations                                        23,882     26,053            2,171     9.1
Farming, fishing, and forestry    occupations       1,429     1,480                   51        3.6
Construction and extraction    occupations          7,451     8,439                  989     13.3
Installation, maintenance,                             
   and repair occupations                                    5,820     6,482            662     11.4
Production occupations                                     13,060     13,811            750     5.7
Transportation and                             
   material moving occupations                         10,088     11,618            1,530     15.2
                              
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, November 2001.

The occupational groups expected to add at least 2 million new jobs while displaying at least average job growth between 2000 and 2010 are: professional and related occupations; service occupations; and management, business, and financial occupations.

Of all the major occupational groups (see Table 1), professional and related occupations is projected to increase the fastest (26.0 percent) and add the largest number of jobs (7 million) between 2000 and 2010. The majority of this job growth comes from three subgroups: computer and mathematical occupations; health care practitioners and technical occupations; and education, training, and library occupations. Examples of occupations within these three areas are: computer software engineers; database administrators; desktop publishers; medical records and health information technicians; and special education, preschool, and elementary teachers. Among health care practitioners, registered nurses--by far the largest occupation in this subgroup--should account for more than a third of all new jobs.

Service occupations will have the second largest numerical job growth (5.1 million jobs) and the second highest rate of job growth (19.5 percent). The subgroups that will account for most of this job growth are food preparation and serving related occupations (1.6 million jobs); health care support occupations (1.1 million jobs); personal care and service occupations (856,000 jobs); protective service occupations (809,000); and building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations (779,000 jobs).

Management, business, and financial occupations will grow by 2.1 million jobs. Within this group, management occupations will add nearly 1.3 million jobs and business and financial operations occupations will add 845,000 jobs.

Sales and related occupations are projected to grow about as fast as average (11.9 percent) with a total job increase of about 1.9 million jobs. The largest numerical job growth in this group, however, is in occupations with fairly low median weekly earnings--such as cashiers, retail salespersons, and supervisors, sales workers. Median weekly earnings for these three occupations ranged from $299-$618 in 2001.

Jobs in office and administrative support occupations are projected to increase by 2.2 million, however, they will grow more slowly than average. The largest numerical job growth is expected in customer service representatives, receptionists and information clerks, and bill and account collectors. This group also contains some of the occupations with the largest job declines--order clerks, 71,000 jobs; tellers, 59,000 jobs; insurance claims and policy processing clerks, 58,000 jobs; and word processors and typists, 57,000 jobs.

Average job growth is projected for transportation and material moving occupations. Of the 1.5 million jobs that will be created in this group, nearly 40 percent will be for driver/sales workers and truck drivers--heavy, tractor-trailer, light, and delivery. Water transportation occupations will grow much slower than average and railroad occupations will show an 18.5 percent decline in jobs over the 2000-2010 period.

As shown in Table 2, of the 30 occupations with the fastest job growth over the 2000-2010 period, 17 are health-related and 10 are computer-related occupations. Some of the fast-growing health-related occupations include personal and home care aides; physician assistants; medical assistants; medical records and health information technicians; dental hygienists; speech-language pathologists; and veterinary technologists and technicians. Some of the fast-growing computer-related occupations include computer software engineers, applications and systems software; network and computer systems administrators; desktop publishers; database administrators; and computer systems analysts.

Of the 30 occupations with the largest numerical job growth over the 2000-2010 period (see Table 3), some of the health-related occupations are registered nurses, home health aides, and medical assistants. Examples of the computer-related occupations are computer support specialists, computer software applications engineers, and computer systems analysts. Within the education, training, and library occupations, some are postsecondary teachers, teacher assistants, and elementary school teachers, except special education.

Table 2
Occupations with the Fastest Job Growth, 2000-2010
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Text Version
                                         Employment              Occupation     2000     2010                 Number     Percent
                                   
Computer related occupations                                  
Computer software engineers,


applications     380     760                 380     100
Computer support specialists     506     996                 490     97
Computer software engineers,                                  
    systems software     317     601                 284     90
Network and computer systems                                  
    administrators     229     416                 187     82
Network systems and data                                  
    communications analysts     119     211                 92     77
Desktop publishers     38     63                 25     67
Database administrators     106     176                 70     66
Computer systems analysts     431     689                 258     60
Computer and information systems    managers     313     463                 150     48
Computer and information scientists,    research     28     39                 11     40
                                   
Health related occupations                                  
Personal and home care aides     414     672                 258     62
Medical assistants     329     516                 187     57
Physician assistants     58     89                 31     53
Medical records and health                                  
    information technicians     136     202                 66     49
Home health aides     615     907                 291     47
Physical therapist aides     36     53                 17     46
Audiologists     13     19                 6     45
Occupational therapist aides     9     12                 4     45
Physical therapist assistants     44     64                 20     45
Occupational therapist assistants     17     23                 7     40
Veterinary assistants and laboratory                                  
    animal caretakers     55     77                 22     40
Veterinary technologists and technicians     49     69                 19     39
Speech-language pathologists     88     122                 34     39
Mental health and substance abuse                                  
    social workers     83     116                 33     39
Dental assistants     247     339                 92     37
Dental hygienists     147     201                 54     37
Pharmacy technicians     190     259                 69     36
                                   
Other occupations                                  
Social and human service assistants     271     418                 147     54
Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors     158     222                 64     40
Special education teachers, preschool,                                  
    kindergarten, and elementary school     234     320                 86     37
                                   
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review,
November 2001.

Table 3
Selected Occupations with the Largest Job Growth, 2000-2010
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Text Version
      Employment           Change
Occupation     2000     2010           Number     Percent
                             
Combined food preparation and serving                            
    workers, including fast food     2,206     2,879           673     30
Customer service representatives     1,946     2,577           631     32
Registered nurses     2,194     2,755           561     26
Retail salespersons     4,109     4,619           510     12
Computer support specialists     506     996           490     97
Cashiers, except gaming     3,325     3,799           474     14
Office clerks, general     2,705     3,135           430     16
Security guards     1,106     1,497           391     35
Computer software engineers, applications     380     760           380     100
Waiters and waitresses     1,983     2,347           364     18
                             
General and operations managers     2,398     2,761           363     15
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer     1,749     2,095           346     20
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants     1,373     1,697           323     24
Janitors and cleaners, except maids                            
    and housekeeping cleaners     2,348     2,665           317     13
Postsecondary teachers     1,344     1,659           315     23
Teacher assistants     1,262     1,562           301     24
Home health aides     615     907           291     47
Laborers and freight, stock, and                            
    material movers, hand     2,084     2,373           289     14
Computer software engineers,                            
    systems software     317     601           284     90
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers     894     1,154           260     29
                             
Personal and home care aides     414     672           258     62
Computer systems analysts     431     689           258     60
Receptionists and information clerks     1,078     1,334           256     24
Truck drivers, light or delivery services     1,117     1,331           215     19
Packers and packagers, hand     1,091     1,300           210     19
Elementary school teachers,                            
    except special education     1,532     1,734           202     13
Medical assistants     329     516           187     57
Network and computer                            
    systems administrators     229     416           187     82
Secondary school teachers, except                            
    special and vocational education     1,004     1,190           187     19
Accountants and auditors     976     1,157           181     19
                             
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review,
November 2001.

The median weekly earnings of all wage and salary workers who worked full time in 2001 was $597 for both sexes. Even though an occupation may be projected to show faster than average growth and/or a large numerical increase, the median weekly earnings of that occupation could be much lower than the average for all workers (see Table 4).

Table 4
2001 Median Weekly Earnings of Selected Growth Occupations
Text Version
      Median Weekly Earnings, 2001
(Both Sexes)
Occupations with fastest job growth
     Computer systems analysts and scientists     $1,100
     Operations and systems researchers    
         and analysts     931
     Physician assistants     839
     Speech therapists     834
     Special education teachers     761
     Elementary school teachers     740
     Health technologists and technicians     562
     Pre-kindergarten and kindergarten teachers     480
     Dental assistants     435
   
Occupations with largest job growth    
     Computer systems analysts and scientists     $1,100
     Teachers, college and university     1,009
     Registered nurses     829
     Secondary school teachers     774
     Accountants and auditors     773
     Elementary school teachers     740
     Truck drivers     593
     General office clerks     465
     Information clerks     421
     Health aides, except nursing     375
     Sales workers, retail and personal services     363
     Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants     360
     Hand packers and packagers     326

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, November 2001 and Employment and Earnings, January 2002.

Conclusion

Among the major occupational groups (as shown in Table 1), employment in professional and related occupations and service occupations will increase the fastest and add the most jobs between the 2000-2010 period. While professional and related occupations require the most education and training and offer the highest earnings, service occupations require the least amount of training and offer some of the lowest earnings. More detailed information about any occupation, including training and resources, mentioned in this report can be found in the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics' publication, "Occupational Outlook Handbook," 2002-2003 Edition.

It can also be accessed on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/oco/home.htm

http://www.dol.gov/wb/factsheets/hotjobs03.htm