Dear Troika,
It seems that you're starting to agree with me: it's probably inevitable at this point. There will be some sort of restructuring (i.e. default) on Greek debt. It may be "voluntary" (Vienna-style) at first, but at best the voluntary-ness of it won't last past the present (June) agreement, so in a few months we'll be facing the same situation except with the "voluntary" option no longer on the table.
If you're a member of the "Troika" and you accept that, then it's time to change your goals. Perhaps until now you've been mainly working to try to avoid Greek default. (Though that has not been entirely clear.) And since the possibility of default grew and we began entering the endgame, it certainly seems like your objective shifted to trying to get a relatively good bargaining position for the negotiations about how default would happen. But now it's probably time to focus on something else.
That 'something else' is the precedent that you will be setting for Portugal and Ireland. They are carefully and critically watching your actions vis-à-vis Greece, and will take their cues from what you decide there -- as will investors around the world. In other words, while Greece is probably lost, the details of exactly how you decide to retreat will have a big impact on how investors and governments in Portugal and Ireland act. Time to move on to the next battle.
Put another way: if you do this right, the crisis could end here. If you do it wrong, you can multiply the crisis by three.
Yours sincerely,
Kash
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