

Fortunately, a recent paper by Andra Ghent of Baruch College exploits a new data set to shed considerable light on this topic. Her findings argue against the idea that lender reluctance to modify is a recent phenomenon .... her findings ... bury the notion that securitization is the primary obstacle to renegotiation in the current foreclosure crisis. [Emphasis added.]
After the 2007–2008 financial crisis, it is natural to suppose that private firms and people are the sources of systemic risk. But they are not the only sources and maybe not the main ones (Reinhart and Rogoff 2009). Recent events in Europe have made this point dramatically. The sovereign debt problems in Greece, Ireland, and elsewhere in Europe make it plain that governments can be the source of systemic risk. The increases in interest rates and credit default swap rates for these countries pose a substantial risk to credit markets and the ability of the government to function. At least to some extent, these increases in spreads and rates are the result of decisions made by those in government. For example, Ireland's problems are largely a result of the government's guarantee of all the liabilities of Irish banks. It is not clear how such choices can be regulated other than through the ballot box. [Emphasis added.]Is it possible that all systemic risk to our financial and economic systems is due to government actions, laws, regulations and policies? Think of FDIC insurance, Too Big To Fail, legislated bankruptcy preferences, TARP, US GM takeover lasting effect, union favoritism by government, Fed's money supply manipulation, etc.
Today most students at the top economics have never been exposed to Coase’s work.If economists are not exposed to Ronald Coase's work on property rights and transaction costs, it is unlikely the untrained economists will incorporate Coase's important ideas into their thinking and analyses.
Unlike the Pigouvian approach, which claimed that market failure could be corrected by taxes, subsidies, and regulations, Coase taught us to view these issues in light of property rights and markets. In short, Coase taught against the use of the word “externality.”Read the complete blog post here.
The data also clearly indicate that successful attempts to balance budgets rely almost entirely on reduced government expenditures, while unsuccessful ones rely heavily on tax increases. On average, the typical unsuccessful consolidation consisted of 53% tax increases and 47% spending cuts.Read the complete Wall Street Journal article here.
By contrast, the typical successful fiscal consolidation consisted, on average, of 85% spending cuts.*** Consistent with other studies, we found that successful consolidations focused on reducing social transfers, which in the American context means entitlements, and also on cuts to the size and pay of the government work force. A 1996 International Monetary Fund study concluded that "fiscal consolidation that concentrates on the expenditure side, and especially on transfers and government wages, is more likely to succeed in reducing the public debt ratio than tax-based consolidation."*** While tax hikes slow revenue growth, policies that credibly reduce government spending in the long run boost economic growth by more than their simple effects on deficits might imply. Any attempt to address the federal government's budget shortfall that relies on less than 85% spending cuts runs too large a risk of failure.
In reality, the call to "tax the rich" is a cover story for levying higher tax rates on the prosperous middle class.The complete Part I is available here.*** In addition, the "tax the rich" mantra assumes that the same individuals make the same amount of money each and every year. The reality is that, in many cases, producing an annual income of $250,000 is achieved after years of hard work and career advancement. Those who report incomes of more than $250,000 in a single year in many cases are also individuals who have owned and operated a business, built it over a life-time as they earned a modest income, and sell the business in the current year.
Thus, the higher tax rates the Democrats say are aimed at the rich actually are targeted at the baby boomers as they hit their peak earning years. There are no precise data on the demographics of those who make more than $200,000 a year. But based on Census data for 2007, the latest year available, it is clear that incomes tend to peak between the ages of 45 and 64--that is currently for those who were born between 1947 and 1966. Of the 23.6 million households with incomes of $100,000 and more in 2007, 12 million, or 50%, were within this 20-year group of baby boomers.
But where is the justice in reducing these individuals' financial ability to pay for their children's college educations, save some extra money for retirement or take a nice family vacation?
If there is a right to healthcare, then it is my right not to exercise it.
Freedom of speech does not require me to speak. The right to a jury trial and an attorney gives me the right to refuse a jury trial and an attorney, and instead to be tried before a judge, to represent myself w/o an attorney, and to plea bargain with the Prosecutor.
In contradiction to a right, the right to US healthcare requires me to obtain health insurance, requires me to obtain a government approved form of health insurance with mandatory coverage provisions. As a senior single male, I am required to obtain a health insurance policy that includes payment for mammograms, pregnancy and birth control and prevents the insurer from charging me a different price than a childbearing aged female.
A right includes the right to refrain to exercise, and the right to give away all or part of my right. For example, the constitutional right against self-incrimination includes the right to waive that right and negotiate with the government the right to full or partial immunity from prosecution.
Healthcare as implemented under the new law is the antithesis of a right.
top White House staff were consumed by the spill and its political fallout for much of the spring of 2010. As staffers now lamented privately, this had diverted attention from other pressing issues—above all, the sputtering economy.Read the complete article here.
The political fortunes of the Democratic party were not the only collateral damage from the spill. Gulf coast tourism plummeted, even in areas untouched by oil. Seafood restaurants in New York and Chicago proudly advertised that they did not serve Gulf fish. And many oyster beds were devastated when they were flushed with fresh water from the Mississippi River as a “preventive” measure. Most recently, on December 1, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar cancelled previous plans for much expanded offshore oil and gas drilling, killing thousands of jobs and forgoing an opportunity to reduce the nation’s enormous foreign energy bill.
Oddly enough, however, the ecosystem of the Gulf itself turns out to have suffered remarkably little damage from the continuous gushing of oil into the water from April 20 till July 15, when the leaking well was capped. [Emphasis added.]
Shareholders who object to insider trading are usually thought to have no alternative but government regulation. That’s just not so. Insider trading could be prohibited or restricted by corporate bylaw provisions. Outside auditors would monitor management behavior, and suspected violations would be referred to arbitrators. It might seem inefficient for small shareholders to expend the time and energy necessary to get together and pursue possible corporate violations. But following David Friedman’s innovative ideas on law and economics, we can imagine shareholders selling in advance their rights to recover damages from possible future violations. Specialists could acquire these rights and pursue violations efficiently. Corporate management would be well aware of the watchful eyes of these specialists.Read the complete article here.
There is no need to make a by-law exception for takeovers. Acquiring companies will not pay more than their valuation of the worth of the target company or their ability to make a profit and increase shareholder value at the acquiring price. If the market raises the stock price too high for the acquiring company, the buying company will walk away. If the price stays above the original target price, it is an indication that the target company is worth more to another acquiring company.
Earlier release of the information that there is a possible acquiring company buying up shares will prevent shareholders of the target company from selling prematurely, while the buying company is acquiring shares prior to announcement. Earlier release of takeover information will also allow other companies to evaluate a takeover of the target and it could result in another company that gets a greater economic benefit from the acquisition bidding a higher price than the original acquirer would.
While it is cheaper to acquire shares before an announcement and run-up in the share price, it is at the expense of the target shareholders of a potentially higher acquisition price and at the expense of target shareholders that trade in the short period prior to announcement. Additionally, allowing more time for other companies to evaluate and bid could result in a better economic allocation of resources.
scientifically, it can be proven that the other line is more likely to move faster than your line. As shown in the video, in a system with three checkout lines, 2/3 of the time, the other lines will move faster than yours. Watch the video below.
When it comes to voluntarily spreading their own wealth around, a distinct "charity gap" opens up between Americans who are for and against government income leveling. Your intuition might tell you that people who favor government redistribution care most about the less fortunate and would give more to charity. Initially, this was my own assumption. But the data tell a different story.
....the General Social Survey (GSS) found that those who were against higher levels of government redistribution privately gave four times as much money, on average, as people who were in favor of redistribution. This is not all church-related giving; they also gave about 3.5 times as much to nonreligious causes. Anti-redistributionists gave more even after correcting for differences in income, age, religion and education.
Of course, there are other ways to give than with money....those who said the government was "spending too much money on welfare" were more likely to donate blood than those who said the government was "spending too little money on welfare." The anti-redistributionists were also more likely to give someone directions on the street, return change mistakenly handed them by a cashier, and give food (or money) to a homeless person.
New York State’s 16 medical schools are attacking their foreign competitors. They have begun an aggressive campaign to persuade the State Board of Regents to make it harder, if not impossible, for foreign schools to use New York hospitals as extensions of their own campuses.Read the complete NY Times article here.*** More than 42,000 students apply to medical schools in the United States every year, and only about 18,600 matriculate, leaving some of those who are rejected to look to foreign schools. Graduates of foreign medical schools in the Caribbean and elsewhere constitute more than a quarter of the residents in United States hospitals.*** The New York schools want the state to adopt the position of the American Medical Association, that “the core clinical curriculum of a foreign medical school should be provided by that school and that U.S. hospitals should not provide substitute core clinical experience.”*** “There is evidence,” Mr. Muñoz [a deputy state education commissioner] said, that the more mature Caribbean schools “admit students with very competitive backgrounds. It appears that many of these students were not granted admission to domestic schools because of the limited number of available seats.”
Then Prichard [Alabama] did something that pension experts say they have never seen before: it stopped sending monthly pension checks to its 150 retired workers, breaking a state law requiring it to pay its promised retirement benefits in full.*** So the declining, little-known city of Prichard is now attracting the attention of bankruptcy lawyers, labor leaders, municipal credit analysts and local officials from across the country. They want to see if the situation in Prichard, like the continuing bankruptcy of Vallejo, Calif., ultimately creates a legal precedent on whether distressed cities can legally cut or reduce their pensions, and if so, how.
“Prichard is the future,” said Michael Aguirre, the former San Diego city attorney, who has called for San Diego to declare bankruptcy and restructure its own outsize pension obligations. “We’re all on the same conveyor belt. Prichard is just a little further down the road.”*** A lawyer representing the city, R. Scott Williams, said that the city simply did not have the money. “The reality for Prichard is that if you took money to build the pension up, who’s going to pay the garbage man?” he asked. “Who’s going to pay to run the police department? Who’s going to pay the bill for the street lights? There’s only so much money to go around.”
Our analysis documents the substantial declines in credit scores that accompany foreclosure and examines the length of time it takes individuals to return their credit scores to pre-delinquency levels. The results suggest that, particularly for prime borrowers, credit score recovery comes slowly, if at all. This appears to be driven by persistently higher levels of delinquency on consumer credit (such as auto and credit card loans) in the years that follow foreclosure. Our results also indicate that the experiences of individuals whose mortgages entered foreclosure from 2007 to 2009 have followed a similar path to borrowers foreclosed earlier in the decade, though post-foreclosure delinquency rates for the recently foreclosed have been higher and, consequently, credit score recovery appears to be taking longer.The authors speculate in their paper as to cause and effect of the subsequent defaults in consumer credit. Bankers, however, know that one of the best indicators of a future loan default is a recent previous loan default.
Superior qualifications or special needs determination. An agency may set the payable rate of basic pay of a newly appointed
employee above the minimum rate of the grade under this section if the candidate meets one of the following criteria:
To set pay above a step one. An agency may consider one or more of the following factors, as applicable in the case at hand, to determine
the step at which to set an employee's payable rate of basic pay using the superior qualifications and special needs pay-setting authority:
Jonathan Katz, PhD, professor of physics in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, ... suggested a simple fix, a change to the mud recipe ... the addition of a shear-thickening polymer like cornstarch to a dense top-kill mud might have allowed slugs of mud to descend against the upwelling oil instead of being ripped up and spat out of the well. Eventually, the column of mud would have prevented any further infiltration from the oil reservoir, killing the well.
The birth rate among U.S. teenagers fell to a record low in 2009, and some experts attributed the decline to the recession.
The overall birth rate in the U.S. dropped 4% to a historic low last year, to 13.5 per 1,000 people from 14.0 in 2008, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday. But a steeper decline occurred among those 15 to 19 years old, with the rate falling 6% to 39.1 births per 1,000 females in that age group, the lowest in seven decades of tracking. Rates among teens of all ages, races and ethnic groups also hit record lows in 2009.
NEW YORK, N.Y. (December 21, 2010) - Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo today filed a Martin Act lawsuit against Ernst & Young LLP (“E&Y”), charging the accounting firm with helping Lehman Brothers Holding, Inc. (“Lehman”) engage in an accounting fraud involving the surreptitious removal of tens of billions of dollars of fixed income securities from Lehman’s balance sheet in order to deceive the public about Lehman’s true liquidity condition.Read the complete press release here
The Attorney General’s lawsuit claims that for more than seven years leading up to Lehman’s bankruptcy filing in September 2008, Lehman had engaged in so-called “Repo 105” transactions, explicitly approved by E&Y. The transactions purpose was to temporarily park highly liquid, fixed-income securities with European banks for the sole purpose of reducing Lehman’s financial statement leverage, an important financial metric for investors, stock analysts, lenders, and others interested in Lehman.
Oregon raised its income tax on the richest 2% of its residents last year to fix its budget hole, but now the state treasury admits it collected nearly one-third less revenue than the bean counters projected.If states expect to fund their overly generous unfunded state and municipal worker pension and healthcare liabilities through future tax increase, the states will be in for a big surprise. These future employee benefits are not affordable and are promises that will never be kept.*** One reason revenues are so low is that about one-quarter of the rich tax filers seem to have gone missing. The state expected 38,000 Oregonians to pay the higher tax, but only 28,000 did. Funny how that always happens.*** All of this is an instant replay of what happened in Maryland in 2008 when the legislature in Annapolis instituted a millionaire tax. There roughly one-third of the state's millionaire households vanished from the tax rolls after rates went up.
It is not doable. No one knows before the fact who is a good teacher or what observable characteristics make for a good teacher.I would also add to my Economist comment that one has to factor in the cost of paying for ineffective teachers, since one cannot predict beforehand which teacher is a winner and which teacher is ineffective. It is similar to the venture capital industry. One cannot compute the returns in that industry by only looking at the winning investments and not the losers. Without knowing the hiring criteria for effective teachers, school districts will have to hire ineffective teachers along with effective teachers. The costs of paying salaries of ineffective teachers plus the lost earnings income of students in ineffective teachers' classrooms has to be subtracted from the $400,000 reported income gain number.
From the cited paper in the article:"The related issue is what makes for an effective or ineffective teacher. The extensive research addressing this has found little that consistently distinguishes among teachers in their classroom effectiveness. Most documented has been the finding that master’s degrees bear no consistent relationship with student achievement (See Hanushek and Rivkin (2004, (2006)). But other findings are equally as interesting and important. The amount of experience in the classroom – with the exception of the first few years – also bears no relationship to performance. On average, a teacher with five years experience is as effective as a teacher with 25 years of experience. But, this general result about measured characteristics of teachers goes even deeper. When studied, most evidence indicates that conventional teacher certification, source of teacher training, or salary level are not systematically related to the amount of learning that goes on in the classroom. For example, two recent high quality studies of different preparation and entry routes into teaching compare the impact on student achievement of Teach for America (TFA) and other alternative routes into teaching with traditional teacher training (Boyd et al. (2006) and Kane, Rockoff, and Staiger (2008)). They find little differences by teacher training background."The $400,000 number is about as meaningful and useful as if instead I computed how much money I could make in the stock market, if I only bought stocks that went up and not down. Just as I and everyone else do not know how to find (other than Bernie Madoff) anyone who never loses money in the stock market, we do not know how to find or train effective teachers.
The paper uses teacher quality as it starting point for student achievement improvement and ignores more cost effective alternatives:"The analysis presented below is built on a simple premise: The key element defining a school’s impact on student achievement is teacher quality."The NIH (National Institute of Health) has funded research that finds "Improving mothers' literacy skills may be best way to boost children's achievement"
http://www.nih.gov/news/health/oct2010/nichd-25.htm
" 'The findings indicate that programs to improve maternal literacy skills may provide an effective means to overcome the disparity in academic achievement between children in poor and affluent neighborhoods,' said Rebecca Clark, Ph.D., chief of the Demographic and Behavioral Sciences Branch at the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), the NIH institute that funded the study."
Instead of paying more to teachers, just add literacy programs for mothers and watch our k-12 students improve. It will be much more cost effective and will improve k-12 results.
Projecting forward using past values of the spread [10 yr - 3 mos US Treasury yield] and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 1.0 percent rate over the next year, the same projection as in October and September. Although the time horizons do not match exactly, this comes in on the more pessimistic side of other forecasts, although, like them, it does show moderate growth for the year.*** Using the yield curve to predict whether or not the economy will be in recession in the future, we estimate that the expected chance of the economy being in a recession next December is 1.5 percent. This drop from November’s 2.3 percent and October’s 3.9 percent reflects the steeper yield curve.
Because small business owners may rely heavily on the value of their homes to finance their businesses (through mortgages or home equity lines), the fall in housing prices might be one of the causes of their difficulty. We analyze information from a variety of sources and find that homes do constitute an important source of capital for small business owners and that the impact of the recent decline in housing prices is significant enough to be a real constraint on small business finances.
Figure 1. Percent of Households with Home Equity Debt