Why Are Food Prices Rising So Fast?

article from: The Economic Collapse Blog

If you do much grocery shopping, you have probably noticed that the cost of food has been rising at a very brisk pace over the past year.  So why are food prices rising so fast?  According to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, inflation is still very low and the economy is improving.  So what is going on here?  When I go to the grocery store these days, there are very few things that I will buy unless they are on sale.  In fact, I have noticed that many of the new "sale prices" are the old regular prices.  Other items have had their packages reduced in size in order to hide the price increases.  But with millions of American families just barely scraping by as it is, what is going to happen if food prices keep rising this rapidly?
The food prices are especially painful if you are trying to eat healthy.  Most of the low price stuff in the grocery stores is garbage.  Eating the "typical American diet" is a highway to cancer, heart disease and diabetes.


But if you try to stick to food that is "healthy" or "organic" you can blow through hundreds of dollars in a heartbeat.  In fact, the reality is that tens of millions of American families have now essentially been priced out of a healthy diet.

Soon there will be millions more American families that will not even be able to afford an unhealthy diet.
Some recent statistics compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are absolutely staggering.  According to a recent CNBC article, over the past year many of the most popular foods in America have absolutely soared in price....

Coffee, for instance, is up 40 percent. Celery is 28 percent higher while butter prices rose 26.4 percent. Rounding out the top five are bacon, at 23.5 percent, and cabbage, at 23.3 percent.

Unfortunately, it looks like the trend of rising food prices is accelerating.  Just look at what the CNBC article says happened in the month of April alone....

Just in April—the most recent month for which data is available—grapes went up nearly 30 percent, cabbage jumped about 17 percent and orange juice surged more than 5 percent.

Meat is becoming more expensive as well.  Since March 2009, livestock prices have risen by 138%.
So when Ben Bernanke tells us that inflation is very low, that really is a lie.  On the stuff that people spend money on every day (like food and gas), prices have gone up dramatically.

Sadly, this is not just a phenomenon that is happening in the United States.  The truth is that the entire planet is rapidly approaching a horrific global food crisis.

Over the past year, the global price of food has risen by 37 percent and this has pushed approximately 44 million more people around the world into poverty.

When food prices rise in the U.S. it may be painful for millions of American families, but around the world a rise in food prices can mean the difference between surviving and not surviving.

That is why it has been so alarming that the global price of wheat has approximately doubled over the past year.

But it is not just wheat that has been soaring.  Check out what a recent Bloomberg article had to say about what has been happening to many key agricultural commodities over the past year....

Corn futures advanced 77 percent in the past 12 months in Chicago trading, a global benchmark, rice gained 39 percent and sugar jumped 64 percent. There will be shortages in corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee and cocoa this year or next, according to Utrecht, Netherlands-based Rabobank Groep. Prices also rose after droughts and floods from Australia to Canada ruined crops last year. European farmers are now contending with their driest growing season in more than three decades.

Even before this recent spike in food prices the world was struggling to get enough food to everybody.  It has been estimated that somewhere in the world someone starves to death every 3.6 seconds, and 75 percent of those are children under the age of five.

So what is going to happen if food prices keep on rising at the current pace?

That is a very good question.

We really are starting to move into unprecedented territory.  Nobody is quite sure what is going to happen next.

So why is all of this happening?

Well, a lot of people are blaming the Federal Reserve.  All of the "quantitative easing" that the Fed has done has flooded the financial markets with money.  All of that money had to go somewhere.  Much of it has pumped up the prices of hard assets such as oil, gold and agricultural commodities.

But it is not just the Fed that is to blame.  The truth is that central banks all over the world have been recklessly printing money.

When the amount of money in an economy goes up, the purchasing value of all existing money goes down.  In the United States, that means that your dollars will not go as far as they did before.

But it is not just monetary policy that is affecting food prices.  In 2010 and 2011 we have seen an unprecedented wave of natural disasters and crazy weather.  This has caused problems with crops all over the globe.

In addition, U.S. economic policies are also playing a role.  At this point, almost a third of all corn grown in the United States is used for fuel.  This is putting a lot of stress on the price of corn.

Also, there are some long-term trends that are not in our favor.  For example, the systematic depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer could eventually turn "America's Breadbasket" back into the "Dust Bowl".  If you have not heard of this problem I would encourage you to do some research on it.

Things are going to get a lot worse, but already America is having a really hard time feeding itself.  According to Feeding America's 2010 hunger study, more than 37 million Americans are now being served by food pantries and soup kitchens.

So is that number unusual?

Yes, it sure is.

The number of Americans that are going to food pantries and soup kitchens has increased by 46% since 2006.

That is not a good trend.

Another stat that I talk a lot about in this column is the number of Americans on food stamps.

Right now, there are 44 million Americans on food stamps.  Nearly half of them are children.

How did we ever get to the point as a nation where more than 20 million children end up on food stamps?

It is estimated that one out of every four American children is currently on food stamps, and it is being projected that approximately 50 percent of all U.S. children will be on food stamps at some point in their lives before they reach the age of 18.

So what is going to happen if the economy gets even worse?

What is going to happen if there really is a major food crisis in this country someday?

Food prices have been going up for decades and they are going to continue to go up.  But the frightening thing is how fast they are increasing now.

As the U.S. middle class continues to be destroyed, the number of Americans that can't afford to buy enough food is going to continue to rise.  Food prices are rising much faster than wages are, and that is not likely to change any time soon.

Food is rapidly becoming one of the most important global economic issues of this decade.  The farther one looks down the road, the bleaker things look for the global food situation.

I hope you are prepared for that.

Bernanke to Invent New Term for Printing Money

When the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) reported their latest consumer price index (CPI) inflation data last week, everybody in the mainstream media worked tirelessly to spin the data in order to proclaim that U.S. price inflation is not a problem. Most articles in the media reported that inflation slowed in May due to falling gas prices. The truth is, gas prices rose last month and U.S. price inflation is spiraling out of control.


Price inflation based on the CPI on a year-over-year basis rose during the month of May to 3.57%, up from 3.16% in April, 2.68% in March, 2.11% in February, 1.63% in January, 1.5% in December, and 1.1% in November. The official rate of price inflation has more than tripled over the past 6 months. Yes, maybe the rate of year-over-year price inflation rose by slightly less in May over April, than it did in April over March, but this isn't good news at all. This U.S. dollar is still rapidly losing its purchasing power and the rate at which it is declining in purchasing power is accelerating.

On an unadjusted basis, gas prices rose 3.6% in the month of May. The media is reporting gas prices based on the BLS's seasonal adjustments. Only with the BLS's deceptive seasonal adjustments did gas prices decline by 2% in the month of May. The BLS's seasonal adjustments will actually reverse starting in the month of July and add to reported gasoline prices. NIA predicts that come August when the BLS releases its July CPI report, the media will begin focusing on unadjusted gasoline prices because the unadjusted gain will be less than the adjusted one. The media always reports the data that supports their agenda and ignores the data that works against it.

The media is obviously just saying what the U.S. government wants them to say. Larry Summers, a Keynesian economist who served for 5 years last decade as President of Harvard and was up until late-2010 director of President Obama's White House National Economic Council, just said last week that, "the underlying rate of inflation is still trending downwards". The media's favorite economist Paul Krugman, a Keynesian who has an op-ed column in the New York Times, said last week that, "There’s really nothing here to shake my view that deflation, not inflation, is the threat."

Krugman, who has been calling for massive price deflation the whole entire time that NIA has been predicting massive price inflation, is refusing to admit he has been wrong and is telling all Americans to ignore rapidly rising food and energy prices because he claims they are too volatile. He is telling the world to focus solely on the core CPI, which ignores food and energy, the two items that Americans need most to live and survive. Core CPI is weighed heavily by rents and America's Real Estate bubble still isn't done deflating. The only purpose of having a core CPI is for Keynesian economists like Krugman to use it to mislead Americans and deceive them into believing that inflation is not a problem.

Core CPI was an invention of the Nixon administration, which right there should tell you all you need to know about it. President Nixon's idea for creating core CPI, was to deceive Americans about price inflation by excluding the items that were rising the most, which he would justify by calling these items "too volatile". NIA has predicted from the very beginning that inflation will not effect all goods and services equally and that as inflation begins to spiral out of control, inflation would gravitate most towards the prices of the items that Americans need the most, and there is nothing that Americans need more than food and agricultural products, and to a lesser extent energy.

Whenever the mainstream media reports about global inflation and they show a map of the world, the map always shows massive inflation in Middle Eastern and Asian countries, with the U.S. having the least price inflation. The truth is, inflation in Middle Eastern and Asian countries isn't many times worse than the U.S., it is just that their governments are many times more honest and aren't as advanced in manipulating economic statistics as our government is. While all of the headlines from major American news organizations about U.S. inflation said last week that inflation is slowing and not a problem, those same news organizations wrote articles about Chinese inflation being at a new 34-month high of 5.5%. The fact is, official U.S. price inflation is also at its highest level in nearly three years and our real price inflation rate is actually higher than China's reported rate of price inflation.

Based on the BLS's CPI, year-over-year U.S. price inflation in the month of May of 3.57% was the highest year-over-year price inflation rate since October of 2008, right before the global financial crisis. If it wasn't for the global financial crisis of late-2008/early-2009 and the world's mistake of liquidating real assets and hoarding fiat U.S. dollars as a safe haven, it is likely that the official rate of U.S. price inflation would already be in the double-digits today. NIA estimates the real rate of U.S. price inflation, minus geometric weighting and hedonics, to currently be approximately 7.5% on a year-over-year basis. It is possible that the real U.S. price inflation rate will reach double digits in the second half of 2011. That will be devastating to the U.S. economy because at that point it will just about guarantee that the Federal Reserve will have to raise the federal funds rate to north of 10% by the middle of this decade.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet just reached a brand new record of $2.832 trillion, up from $2.815 trillion in the prior week, as we approach the end of QE2 at the end of June. The stock market is already anticipating the end of QE2 with the Dow Jones currently down over 900 points from its high at the end of April. The declining stock market is pretty much sowing the seeds for a QE3. After all, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn't want to see the phony U.S. economic recovery blow up in smoke.

Bernanke will do everything possible to disguise QE3 and will never admit to there being a QE3. Remember, this is the same Federal Reserve Chairman who lied to every single American on '60 Minutes' when he said, "We're not printing money." That is exactly what QE2 is, printing money, but just like how Bernanke won't admit to printing money, Bernanke is now going to retire the term "quantitative easing" and come up with a new term for the Fed's latest destructive policy of creating massive monetary inflation.

Restaurants Lift Prices as Inflation Hawks See Fed Behind Curve

By Anna-Louise Jackson and Anthony Feld


(Bloomberg) Dining out will cost more this year as U.S. restaurants take advantage of the nearly two-year long expansion to boost prices on food and drinks.

Higher-priced menus reflect growing confidence by eateries that consumers can afford to pay more to eat out. Restaurants are emboldened in part by the success of U.S. airlines, which have raised fares almost 10 percent since a year ago, according to Dean Maki chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York.


“The fact that the airline industry was able to pass along cost increases signals that the pricing environment has become somewhat more favorable than it was during the heart of the recession,” Maki said. “It’s more likely restaurants will be able to pass along price increases now relative to the last few years.”

Higher food and fuel costs are spurring menu changes, which are reflected in the food-services category of the personal- consumption-expenditures price index. Purchased meals and beverages, which make up about 6 percent of core PCE, rose nearly 2 percent in March from a year ago, the biggest increase since November 2009, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in Washington.

Several apparel companies -- including San Francisco-based Levi Strauss & Co., which supplies jeans to retailers in more than 110 countries -- also have announced increases to offset higher costs for cotton, foreign wages and freight. With imported-clothing prices rising at the fastest rate in at least a decade, retailers stand a better chance of exerting pricing power, Maki said.

Pressure on the Fed

All this is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to prevent inflation from getting out of hand, said Samer Nsouli, chief investment officer in New York for the Lyford Group Macro Fund.

“Inflation hawks see restaurants and airlines passing through higher prices and say the Fed’s behind the curve,” Nsouli said. “The Fed’s not paying enough attention to such trends when it comes to its continued accommodative monetary policy.”

The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee said it “will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation” in the statement for its April 27 meeting, when it kept the target for the federal funds rate, or overnight inter-bank lending rate, at zero to 0.25 percent. It first set the rate at the record low in December 2008. The Fed also reaffirmed at the April meeting its plan to complete a $600 billion Treasury purchase program by June.

‘Transitory’ Threat

Fed Chairman Ben Bernake and his chief deputies on the FOMC -- Fed Vice Chairman and New York Fed President William C. Dudley -- have said in recent speeches that the committee’s leadership believes Janet Yullen the threat from accelerating prices will prove “transitory.” Even so, policy makers have been bumping up their forecast for 2011 core inflation, which excludes food and fuel. The April projection is about 1.5 percent, compared with about 1.2 percent in January.

Restaurants have projected menu increases of 1.8 percent during the next six months, the most in a year, according to research by RBC Capital Markets. The amount depends on the type of food they serve, said Larry Miller an RBC analyst in Atlanta. In the same period, the companies are forecasting a rise of at least 3.2 percent in their commodity costs, the research showed.

The industry’s ability to pass along higher input costs depends on diners’ ability to pay more. While the unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent in March from a post-recession peak of 10.1 percent in October 2009, other consumer gauges have been mixed. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to minus 45.1 in the week ended April 24, the first decline in a month.

‘Decent’ Trends

Customer traffic still has improved from last year and “trends have been decent in terms of demand, so restaurants have a little more confidence to raise prices,” Miller said.

The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Restaurants Index, which includes McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), The Cheesecake Factory Inc. (CAKE) and 25 other companies, has risen by 42 percent since December 31, 2007, while the S&P 500 Index has declined by 9 percent.

McDonald’s boosted menu prices in the U.S. by 1 percent in March, Chief Financial Officer Peter Bensen said on an April 21 conference call. The Oak Brook, Illinois-based fast-food chain had resisted such a move since 2009, said Miller, who upgraded McDonald’s stock in January to “outperform” from “sector perform.”

“Our upgrade was driven by the belief that fast-food models, like McDonald’s, thrive in a modest inflationary environment and that they would be able to successfully implement price increases in 2011,” Miller said.

Energy Costs

BJ’s Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) expects to boost menu prices for the full year by about 3 percent to offset rising food and energy costs, Chief Executive Officer Gerald Deitchle said on an April 20 conference call. Like McDonald’s, the Huntington Beach, Calfornia-based company didn’t raise prices the past few years at its namesake brewery, pizza and grill chains, Deitchle said.

Cheesecake Factory, based in Calabasas Hills, California is monitoring input costs after rolling out a 0.7 percent rise at its 150 casual-dining restaurants earlier this year, Chief Financial Officer Douglas Benn said on an April 20 conference call. The company currently projects a further boost of at least 1.4 percent later this year, he said.

“We will implement a higher level of menu-price increases in our upcoming summer menu change if commodity-cost pressures continue at the current level,” Benn said.

Food Quality

Cheesecake Factory, BJ’s and McDonald’s are among a group of “haves,” according to Steve West, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in St. Louis. These are restaurants that can push through moderate price changes, though they likely won’t be menu-wide, West said. He includes Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) in this group because it has focused on improving food quality and the customer experience during the recession.

“If anyone has pricing power, it’s Chipotle,” said West, who maintains a “buy” rating on the stock.

The Denver-based burrito chain, which McDonald’s spun off in 2006, will wait to raise prices until the third quarter, allowing it time to “see the magnitude and timing of inflation and assess the customer reaction to price increases at other restaurants,” Chief Financial Officer John Hartung said on an April 20 conference call.

The restaurant industry will serve as a test of the retail sector’s pricing power, Maki said.

‘Stronger Position’

“Consumers are in a stronger position now because their labor income has been improving, but the surge in gasoline prices has moderated the recent growth in their purchasing power,” Maki said.

For Yum! Brands Inc. -- the Louisville, Kentucky-based owner of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell fast-food chains -- potential price changes in this environment are a balancing act, Chief Financial Officer Richard Carucci said on an April 21 conference call.

“When you have inflation and our sales are soft, you have to play it pretty smartly,” Carucci said.

Smithfield CEO: Higher Food Prices Are Here to Stay

from Phoenix Capital Research

Here’s a zinger of a news story that most commentators haven’t bothered to take note of…

The CEO of Smithfield Farms, the largest pork producer in the US. Among other things he said:

“Maybe to someone in the upper incomes it doesn’t matter what the price of a pound of bacon is, or what the price of a ham, or the price of a pound of pork chops is,” he says. “But for many of the customers we sell to, it really does matter.” Workers can share cars when the price of oil rises, he quips, but “you can’t share your food.”


Mr. Pope also worries about the impact on farmers, who are leveraging up operations to afford the ever-rising price of land and fertilizer that has resulted from the increased corn demand. “There are record prices for livestock but farmers are exiting the business!” he exclaims. “Why? Farmers know they won’t make money.”

Weather is a factor, too. “We’ve had the luxury for the last three years of extremely good corn crops, with high yields and good growing conditions. We are just one bad weather event away from potentially $10 corn, which once again is another 50% increase in the input cost to our live production.”

…Not all companies will survive this economic whirlwind. Mr. Pope recalls what happened the last time there was a surge in corn prices, in 2008: “The largest chicken processor in the United States, Pilgrim’s Pride, filed for bankruptcy.” They “couldn’t raise prices, so their cost of production went up dramatically.” Could it happen again? “It darn well could!” Mr. Pope exclaims.

…Mr. Pope says the “losers” here “are the consumer, who’s going to have to pay more for the product, and the livestock farmer who’s going to have to buy high-priced grain that he can’t afford because he’s stretching his own lines of credit. The hog farmer . . . is in jeopardy of simply going out of business ’cause he doesn’t have the cash liquidity to even pay for the corn to pay for the input to raise the hog. It’s a dynamic that we can’t sustain.”

So here’s a CEO, someone with actual business experience (not some moron academic who’s never run a business a day in his life) telling us the following:

• Food prices are up a lot and going higher in the future.
• Despite high food prices, farmers are quitting farming (lower supplies are coming).
• Food companies will be going bankrupt (even lower supplies are coming).

In other words, we are rapidly heading into a food crisis. Food prices are NOT going to be coming down. And we’re going to be seeing food shortages in the US in the coming months.

Smart folks are already preparing their families and portfolios for what’s to come.

How Goldman Sachs Created the Food Crisis

by: Frederick Kaufman


Don't blame American appetites, rising oil prices, or genetically modified crops for rising food prices. Wall Street's at fault for the spiraling cost of food.


Demand and supply certainly matter. But there's another reason why food across the world has become so expensive: Wall Street greed.


It took the brilliant minds of Goldman Sachs to realize the simple truth that nothing is more valuable than our daily bread. And where there's value, there's money to be made. In 1991, Goldman bankers, led by their prescient president Gary Cohn, came up with a new kind of investment product, a derivative that tracked 24 raw materials, from precious metals and energy to coffee, cocoa, cattle, corn, hogs, soy, and wheat. They weighted the investment value of each element, blended and commingled the parts into sums, then reduced what had been a complicated collection of real things into a mathematical formula that could be expressed as a single manifestation, to be known henceforth as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI).


For just under a decade, the GSCI remained a relatively static investment vehicle, as bankers remained more interested in risk and collateralized debt than in anything that could be literally sowed or reaped. Then, in 1999, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission deregulated futures markets. All of a sudden, bankers could take as large a position in grains as they liked, an opportunity that had, since the Great Depression, only been available to those who actually had something to do with the production of our food.

Change was coming to the great grain exchanges of Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City -- which for 150 years had helped to moderate the peaks and valleys of global food prices. Farming may seem bucolic, but it is an inherently volatile industry, subject to the vicissitudes of weather, disease, and disaster. The grain futures trading system pioneered after the American Civil War by the founders of Archer Daniels Midland, General Mills, and Pillsbury helped to establish America as a financial juggernaut to rival and eventually surpass Europe. The grain markets also insulated American farmers and millers from the inherent risks of their profession. The basic idea was the "forward contract," an agreement between sellers and buyers of wheat for a reasonable bushel price -- even before that bushel had been grown. Not only did a grain "future" help to keep the price of a loaf of bread at the bakery -- or later, the supermarket -- stable, but the market allowed farmers to hedge against lean times, and to invest in their farms and businesses. The result: Over the course of the 20th century, the real price of wheat decreased (despite a hiccup or two, particularly during the 1970s inflationary spiral), spurring the development of American agribusiness. After World War II, the United States was routinely producing a grain surplus, which became an essential element of its Cold War political, economic, and humanitarian strategies -- not to mention the fact that American grain fed millions of hungry people across the world.

Futures markets traditionally included two kinds of players. On one side were the farmers, the millers, and the warehousemen, market players who have a real, physical stake in wheat. This group not only includes corn growers in Iowa or wheat farmers in Nebraska, but major multinational corporations like Pizza Hut, Kraft, Nestlé, Sara Lee, Tyson Foods, and McDonald's -- whose New York Stock Exchange shares rise and fall on their ability to bring food to peoples' car windows, doorsteps, and supermarket shelves at competitive prices. These market participants are called "bona fide" hedgers, because they actually need to buy and sell cereals.

On the other side is the speculator. The speculator neither produces nor consumes corn or soy or wheat, and wouldn't have a place to put the 20 tons of cereal he might buy at any given moment if ever it were delivered. Speculators make money through traditional market behavior, the arbitrage of buying low and selling high. And the physical stakeholders in grain futures have as a general rule welcomed traditional speculators to their market, for their endless stream of buy and sell orders gives the market its liquidity and provides bona fide hedgers a way to manage risk by allowing them to sell and buy just as they pleased.

But Goldman's index perverted the symmetry of this system. The structure of the GSCI paid no heed to the centuries-old buy-sell/sell-buy patterns. This newfangled derivative product was "long only," which meant the product was constructed to buy commodities, and only buy. At the bottom of this "long-only" strategy lay an intent to transform an investment in commodities (previously the purview of specialists) into something that looked a great deal like an investment in a stock -- the kind of asset class wherein anyone could park their money and let it accrue for decades (along the lines of General Electric or Apple). Once the commodity market had been made to look more like the stock market, bankers could expect new influxes of ready cash. But the long-only strategy possessed a flaw, at least for those of us who eat. The GSCI did not include a mechanism to sell or "short" a commodity.

This imbalance undermined the innate structure of the commodities markets, requiring bankers to buy and keep buying -- no matter what the price. Every time the due date of a long-only commodity index futures contract neared, bankers were required to "roll" their multi-billion dollar backlog of buy orders over into the next futures contract, two or three months down the line. And since the deflationary impact of shorting a position simply wasn't part of the GSCI, professional grain traders could make a killing by anticipating the market fluctuations these "rolls" would inevitably cause. "I make a living off the dumb money," commodity trader Emil van Essen told Businessweek last year. Commodity traders employed by the banks that had created the commodity index funds in the first place rode the tides of profit.

Bankers recognized a good system when they saw it, and dozens of speculative non-physical hedgers followed Goldman's lead and joined the commodities index game, including Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Pimco, JP Morgan Chase, AIG, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers, to name but a few purveyors of commodity index funds. The scene had been set for food inflation that would eventually catch unawares some of the largest milling, processing, and retailing corporations in the United States, and send shockwaves throughout the world.

The money tells the story. Since the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, there has been a 50-fold increase in dollars invested in commodity index funds. To put the phenomenon in real terms: In 2003, the commodities futures market still totaled a sleepy $13 billion. But when the global financial crisis sent investors running scared in early 2008, and as dollars, pounds, and euros evaded investor confidence, commodities -- including food -- seemed like the last, best place for hedge, pension, and sovereign wealth funds to park their cash. "You had people who had no clue what commodities were all about suddenly buying commodities," an analyst from the United States Department of Agriculture told me. In the first 55 days of 2008, speculators poured $55 billion into commodity markets, and by July, $318 billion was roiling the markets. Food inflation has remained steady since.

The money flowed, and the bankers were ready with a sparkling new casino of food derivatives. Spearheaded by oil and gas prices (the dominant commodities of the index funds) the new investment products ignited the markets of all the other indexed commodities, which led to a problem familiar to those versed in the history of tulips, dot-coms, and cheap real estate: a food bubble. Hard red spring wheat, which usually trades in the $4 to $6 dollar range per 60-pound bushel, broke all previous records as the futures contract climbed into the teens and kept on going until it topped $25. And so, from 2005 to 2008, the worldwide price of food rose 80 percent -- and has kept rising. "It's unprecedented how much investment capital we've seen in commodity markets," Kendell Keith, president of the National Grain and Feed Association, told me. "There's no question there's been speculation." In a recently published briefing note, Olivier De Schutter, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, concluded that in 2008 "a significant portion of the price spike was due to the emergence of a speculative bubble."

What was happening to the grain markets was not the result of "speculation" in the traditional sense of buying low and selling high. Today, along with the cumulative index, the Standard & Poors GSCI provides 219 distinct index "tickers," so investors can boot up their Bloomberg system and bet on everything from palladium to soybean oil, biofuels to feeder cattle. But the boom in new speculative opportunities in global grain, edible oil, and livestock markets has created a vicious cycle. The more the price of food commodities increases, the more money pours into the sector, and the higher prices rise. Indeed, from 2003 to 2008, the volume of index fund speculation increased by 1,900 percent. "What we are experiencing is a demand shock coming from a new category of participant in the commodities futures markets," hedge fund Michael Masters testified before Congress in the midst of the 2008 food crisis.

The result of Wall Street's venture into grain and feed and livestock has been a shock to the global food production and delivery system. Not only does the world's food supply have to contend with constricted supply and increased demand for real grain, but investment bankers have engineered an artificial upward pull on the price of grain futures. The result: Imaginary wheat dominates the price of real wheat, as speculators (traditionally one-fifth of the market) now outnumber bona-fide hedgers four-to-one.

Today, bankers and traders sit at the top of the food chain -- the carnivores of the system, devouring everyone and everything below. Near the bottom toils the farmer. For him, the rising price of grain should have been a windfall, but speculation has also created spikes in everything the farmer must buy to grow his grain -- from seed to fertilizer to diesel fuel. At the very bottom lies the consumer. The average American, who spends roughly 8 to 12 percent of her weekly paycheck on food, did not immediately feel the crunch of rising costs. But for the roughly 2-billion people across the world who spend more than 50 percent of their income on food, the effects have been staggering: 250 million people joined the ranks of the hungry in 2008, bringing the total of the world's "food insecure" to a peak of 1 billion -- a number never seen before.

What's the solution? The last time I visited the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, I asked a handful of wheat brokers what would happen if the U.S. government simply outlawed long-only trading in food commodities for investment banks. Their reaction: laughter. One phone call to a bona-fide hedger like Cargill or Archer Daniels Midland and one secret swap of assets, and a bank's stake in the futures market is indistinguishable from that of an international wheat buyer. What if the government outlawed all long-only derivative products, I asked? Once again, laughter. Problem solved with another phone call, this time to a trading office in London or Hong Kong; the new food derivative markets have reached supranational proportions, beyond the reach of sovereign law.

Volatility in the food markets has also trashed what might have been a great opportunity for global cooperation. The higher the cost of corn, soy, rice, and wheat, the more the grain producing-nations of the world should cooperate in order to ensure that panicked (and generally poorer) grain-importing nations do not spark ever more dramatic contagions of food inflation and political upheaval. Instead, nervous countries have responded instead with me-first policies, from export bans to grain hoarding to neo-mercantilist land grabs in Africa. And efforts by concerned activists or international agencies to curb grain speculation have gone nowhere. All the while, the index funds continue to prosper, the bankers pocket the profits, and the world's poor teeter on the brink of starvation.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/27/how_goldman_sachs_created_the_food_crisis

Food and Energy Inflation is Not Transitory

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake on Wensday held his first press conference in history. The press conference took place shortly after the Fed announced its decision to leave the Fed Funds Rate at a record low of 0% to 0.25%, where it has been for an unprecedented 28 months. The U.S. economy is flooded with U.S. dollars and is close to overdosing on excess liquidity. The fact that our financial markets are not falling on the possibility of the Fed not unleashing QE3 immediately at the end of QE2, shows that we could be on the verge of hyperinflation with or without QE3.

The Federal reserve currently has a mandate of both maintaining price stability and facilitating job creation. However, central banks don't have the ability to create real employment. If any jobs happen to be created as a result of a central bank's policies, they are only temporary jobs created due to the errors and distortions of phony asset bubbles. All phony asset bubbles that are fueled by monetary inflation eventually burst, sending unemployment through the roof.

Almost every major central bank besides the Federal Reserve, understands the truth about job creation, and has a mandate that focuses solely on keeping price inflation low. The Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada and the bank of New Zealand all have mandates that are entirely about low inflation and don't even mention the creation of jobs or the rate of employment. Bernanke said on Wednesday that, "while it is very, very important for us to try to help the economy create jobs and to support the recovery, I think every central banker understands that keeping inflation low and stable is absolutely essential to a successful economy."

Bernanke has decided to go down a route that no central banker has ever gone before. Bernanke has literally invented countless ways to create inflation that nobody else has ever thought of. If keeping inflation low was ever Bernanke's slightest concern, the Fed Funds Rate would currently be north of 5% and the U.S. economy would be in a steep recession. Bernanke has never once thought about keeping inflation low. He has literally implemented every measure he could possibly think of to create as much inflation as possible, while outright lying to the American public and saying that he isn't printing money and that inflation is under control.

Bernanke would like the public to believe that his policies of expanding the money supply through cheap and easy money will cause the U.S. economy to recover and unemployment to decline back to pre-crisis levels, and that right before price inflation spirals out of control, he can raise interest rates and prevent massive price inflation without disrupting the recovery. Unfortunately, this is impossible because the recovery isn't real and massive price inflation is already here. Bernanke's policies may have created 1 million artificial jobs since December of 2009, after 8.75 million jobs were lost in the previous two years, but he did this at the expense of 310 million Americans already seeing double-digit percentage increases in food and energy prices.

Since after the real estate burst in late-2008, the primary economic concern of Americans has been finding a stable job in order to make mortgage payments and put food on the table. Under the pressure of Congress, the Fed printed enough money to prevent a much needed recession that would be healthy for the long-term U.S. economy. In its attempt to reinflate the Real Estate bubble, the Fed has been destroying the free market and creating new economic distortions, which caused an artificial bounce in the rate of employment. Unfortunately, when you add together the money the Fed has either printed or committed for bailouts and stimulus programs, over $4 million has been spent for each job created. The Fed would have been better off just crediting the bank accounts of unemployed Americans with the average U.S. income.

When asked about rising gas prices, NIA is very happy that Chairman Bernanke acknowledged that gas prices "have risen quite significantly" and are "creating a great deal of financial hardship for a lot of people". Bernanke admitted that gas is a "necessity" as "people need to drive to work" for the artificial jobs Bernanke created at a cost of $4 million per job. However, Bernanke seemed to be confused when he said "higher gas prices add to inflation". The truth is, Bernanke's zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing are the inflation, and inflation leads to higher gas prices.

Bernanke is directly responsible for gas prices rising back to $3.87 per gallon, yet refuses to admit it. Bernanke placed the blame on the growing global and emerging market economies and their strong demand for oil. He said that America's demand for oil is going down, which NIA believes is actually due to the U.S. dollar losing its purchasing power and Americans seeing their standard of living decline. Bernanke said there is nothing that he can do about rising oil and gas prices "without derailing growth entirely". The truth is, Bernanke already derailed growth entirely when he derailed the free market. It is impossible to see real economic growth when a government and central bank is interfering in every aspect of the economy and impeding the free market in every possible way. All nominal GDP growth in the U.S., along with growth in retail sales, is solely due to inflation. Even when the government adjusts GDP and retail sales growth to the rate of inflation, it is based off of the consumer price index, which NIA believes is currently understating price inflation by approximately 4%.

Although Bernanke denies he has the ability to reduce gas prices, he claims he can prevent "gas prices from passing into other prices and wages throughout the economy and creating a broader inflation which will be much more difficult to extinguish." Bernanke obviously doesn't want Americans to see higher wages because he believes it could lead to broader inflation, but NIA believes rising wages would be a good thing. Inflation hurts Americans most when the rate of inflation is far outpacing wage increases. The fact is, the U.S. is already experiencing broad inflation even without wage increases.

Bernanke's brand new favorite word as of late seems to be "transitory", which he used about a dozen times during his press conference. Despite what Bernanke says, NIA strongly believes that rising food and gas prices are not transitory. Bernanke likes the word "transitory" because he can use it to try and pretend that rising food and gas prices are only just a temporary phenomenon and that their current high levels aren't here to stay. Many Americans can remember the day 40 years ago when a can of Coca-Cola cost a dime and a Hershey chocolate bar cost a nickel, with a gallon of gas back then costing only thirty-five cents. Have rising food and gas prices over the past four decades been transitory?

NIA first predicted two years ago in its documentary 'Hyperinflation Nation', that rising food and gas prices would soon become the primary concern of all American citizens as a result of the Fed's dangerous and destructive monitary policies. Bernanke back then claimed that inflation would not be a problem and said that the U.S. risked deflation. If Bernanke has been so wrong about the inflation that Americans are faced with today, NIA doesn't see how anybody can possibly believe that Bernanke will be right and that current high food and gas prices aren't here to stay. In our opinion, the food and gas price inflation that Americans have experienced over the past 40 years, is likely to occur all over again during the next 4 years. NIA believes that 4 years from now, Americans will look back at the good old days of having cheap $4 a gallon gas.

The last thing the U.S. government wants is for the American public to realize that Bernanke is responsible for rising food and gas prices. If the public demanded to end the Federal Reserve, the government will no longer be able to spend recklessly knowing that the Fed will be there to monetize their deficit spending. In an attempt to make up excuses for rising gas prices and deflect attention away from the Fed, Congress has been pressuring the U.S. Attorney General to investigate the matter. Attorney General Eric Holder just announced the formation of the Oil and Gas Price Fraud Working Group. The stated purpose of this working group is to monitor the oil and gas markets for potential violations of criminal or civil laws to safeguard against unlawful consumer harm.

NIA considers this to be complete insanity. Any government interference in the oil markets will only drive oil prices up even higher. Oil prices are rising solely do to supply and demand. Demand is going through the roof because the Federal Reserve is creating a lot of inflation, and inflation always gravitates to the goods that Americans need the most to live and survive. Oil supplies are falling because President Obama has ordered U.S. troops to occupy Libya. In the past we at least made up excuses to invade countries like Iraq over oil by claiming they had weapons of mass destruction. Today, the U.S. government doesn't even bother. Obama campaigned as an anti-war President, saying he would bring our troops home from the middle-east. Instead, he has increased our middle-east troop levels, and the sheep who voted for him are showing absolutely no signs of outrage.

http://inflation.us/

Don't Like a Weak Dollar? Might as Well Get Used to It

It only seems like yesterday that you were a tin foil hat wearing nut job if you dared speak of the day when the US dollar would collapse. Well my friends, those days are long gone, for I give you the following article courtesy of CNBC. It's nice to see them finally discussing the death of the dollar, it's just sad that it took them so long to show up to the party.

article by: Jeff Cox

Weakness in the US dollar, which is causing everything to go up—including gas prices, food and stocks—is unlikely to go away soon as a selling frenzy hits the currency market.

The greenback is approaching pre-financial crisis lows and threatening to smash through its all-time low when measured against the world's predominant national currencies.

A combination of factors accounts for the weakness, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies, huge national debts and deficits and the consequential possibility of a debt downgrade because of the financial mess in Washington leading the way.

In short, as trader Dennis Gartman noted Thursday, "the rout of the US dollar" is in full effect.

"Panic dollar selling is setting in," Gartman, a hedge fund manager and author of "The Gartman Letter," wrote in his daily commentary. "This may carry farther than any of us dream of or, worse, have nightmares of."

How low can it go?

Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Dahlman Rose in New York, said the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of select other global currencies, has scant technical support "that has any meaning" between its present level and the historical low of 70.70.

That's a widely shared view, even as currency pros wonder how the dollar could be falling against the euro considering the near certainty of sovereign debt defaults in smaller European Union nations.

Gartman described the dollar as being in "serious jeopardy" because of its status against the euro, which was defended recently as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet announced a rate hike in the zone.

No such defense is being offered in the US, where neither Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke nor most of the rest of the central bank's Open Market Committee seems much in the mood to raise rates despite the anemic dollar. Though the Fed is ostensibly apolitical, there is no pressure as well from the Obama administration to boost the dollar's value.

"If things were to somehow go into freefall or there were disorderly markets, or if it is associated with a rise in interest rates, there could be some concerns there," said Josh Feinman, chief global economist at Deutsche Bank Advisors. "But that's not happening at all. Rates in the US are still very, very low. At the margin, (a weak dollar) is a slight easing in financial conditions."

That, of course, is not the case for consumers buying food and energy. Some economists believe that a weak dollar is contributing heavily to the surge in prices at the pump, with one speculating that gas could reach $6 a gallon or beyond by summertime, given certain conditions.

Food prices also are on a steady climb higher. In both cases, a weak dollar is at least somewhat to blame as it drives commodities, which are priced in dollars and therefore cheaper and more attractive to speculators in the global marketplace.

But the stock market has enjoyed the weak dollar.

The Standard & Poor's 500 and the dollar have had almost a perfectly inverse relationship this year, with the stock index gaining just over 6 percent in 2011 and the dollar losing 6.5 percent.

"At the margins it helps US exporters, and the US importers probably also increase profits as they're repatriated," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities in New York. "I don't see the dollar as having a significant intermediate-run effect on the performance of the economy."

With Wall Street shaking off the dangers of a possible downgrade from S&P, the market is likely to prevail against any thought that it's time to start enacting policies that defend the currency.

The only thing on the horizon that appears to be dollar-friendly is the end of the second leg of the Fed's quantitative easing program—or QE2—in June.

Even then, the central bank is likely only to stop its $600 Treasury-buying operations. There are no indications that the Fed will be selling back into the marketplace any of the securities it has purchased, so a rise in rates is unlikely until inflation becomes more widespread and indicated through government economic metrics.

"That's probably just a warm-up for a QE 3 program later on. All these things are undermining the fundamentals for the dollar," said Sean Hyman, currency director for World Currency Watch. "It doesn't help anything that commodities keep going through the roof. There are a few dynamics working in a concerted effort all at once, and that's killing it."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42703813

Even Ben Stein Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Coming

He sure has come a long way since "Ferris Bueller's Day Off".  During a recent television segment for CBS, Ben Stein declared that "the tea leaves are ominous" and he warned that an economic collapse may be coming.  In particular, Ben Stein is deeply concerned about inflation.  During his recent appearance on CBS, Stein proclaimed that the Federal Reserve is "just shoving money out the door as fast as it can" and that this could have horrific consequences for the U.S. financial system.  Sadly, Ben Stein is exactly right on this point.  The Federal Reserve has already injected enough money into the financial system to create an inflationary disaster.  Fortunately most of this liquidity is still being held by the banks (this will be further explored below), but once all of that money starts getting released into the financial system it is going to unleash economic chaos.


In the video that you are about to watch, Ben Stein states that "when serious inflation hits, it hits everyone".
And that is absolutely true.  Inflation is a hidden tax on ever single dollar that each one of us holds.  Nobody can cheat that hidden tax and nobody can escape from it.

You may have noticed that the price of gas is going up.

In fact, just the other day UPI reported that the price of gas at one station in the Washington D.C. area was up to 5 dollars a gallon.

Can it get much worse?

Well, actually yes it can.

Richard Hastings, a strategist at Global Hunter Securities, recently told CNBC that he believes that we could potentially see $6 gas at some point this summer.

Do you think that a lot of American families will rethink their summer vacations if that happens?

You betcha.

Perhaps Americans will just fly instead.

Well, that is rapidly becoming more expensive as well.  Just check out what one recent CNN article had to say about rising airfares....

Late Tuesday, Southwest Airlines raised all of its round-trip fares by $10. Delta (DAL, Fortune 500) initiated this latest round of price increases on Monday, and as of midday Wednesday American Airlines (AMR, Fortune 500), JetBlue (JBLU) and United Airlines (UAL) had matched it.

As Ben Stein also notes in the video below, food prices are soaring as well.  Rampant money printing by the Federal Reserve and serious crop problems all over the globe have created a "perfect storm" for agricultural commodities.  In the video, Stein sounds downright apocalyptic as he describes crop failures around the world....

But now, we are getting serious crop shortfalls in China - an enormously important agricultural producer and consumer. U.S. crop forecasts are also disappointing. There are huge problems in Australia, South America, and Russia. Corn, wheat, rice and other foodstuff prices are just going wild.

And you know what?

Ben Stein is right.

In a recent article about the global food crisis, I detailed some of the agricultural commodity price increases that we have seen....

*According to the World Bank, the global price of food has risen 36% over the past 12 months.

*The commodity price of wheat has approximately doubled since last summer.

*The commodity price of corn has also about doubled since last summer.

*The commodity price of soybeans is up about 50% since last June.

*The commodity price of orange juice has doubled since 2009.

But it isn't just food and gas that are going up.  We are seeing inflation everywhere.  The value of virtually all "hard assets" is going up.

Investors are running to precious metals such as gold and silver in a desperate attempt to preserve their wealth.  Gold and silver have been absolutely skyrocketing.  The price of gold set another brand new all-time record high this week.  The price of silver hit a 31-year high today.

So why is this happening?

One of the biggest reasons for all of this is that the Federal Reserve has been flooding the system with new money.  In the video below, Ben Stein points to quantitative easing as the primary reason why we are seeing so much inflation....

But most important of all, the Fed is just shoving money out the door as fast as it can, creating piles of cash in banks.

The Federal Reserve had hoped that economic growth would be sparked by all of this new cash, but that is only happening to a minimal degree.

Instead, what Ben Stein believes all of this new money is going to bring about is a situation known as "stagflation".

Do you remember the 1970s and the "misery index"?

Well, we seem to be headed for a repeat of those days.

In a previous article, I defined stagflation....

Stagflation exists when inflation and unemployment are both at high levels at the same time.

Up to this point, we have had high unemployment but relatively low levels of inflation.
But now we are going to get to enjoy high unemployment and high inflation at the same time.

Oh goody!

Video of Ben Stein's recent appearance on CBS is posted below.  You can read a transcript of his remarks here.  It is amazing that a mainstream news outlet would allow this much truth to get out....



Look, the reality is that you cannot pump this much money into the financial system without there eventually being very serious consequences.

For decades the Federal Reserve has been systematically debasing the U.S. dollar, but what the Fed has been doing to the money supply over the past couple of years is absolutely unprecedented.  Just check out the chart below....

So why hasn't all of this new cash caused chaos in the economy already?

Well, because most of it is still trapped in the financial system.  Banks have been reluctant to loan it out.  Instead, they seem content to keep most of it on reserve at the Fed.

But if all of this new money starts leaking out into the economy it is going to drive prices up.  When you have lots more money chasing roughly the same number of goods and services it is inevitable that inflation will result.

Robert Wenzel of EconomicPolicyJournal.com believes that more quantitative easing is not even necessary to turn the U.S. economy into a hyperinflationary nightmare.  In fact, Wenzel says that there are enough excess reserves at the Fed right now to turn us into another Zimbabwe....

With over $1.4 TRILLION in excess reserves, Bernanke never has to resort to QE style monetary operations ever again, to print money. If those excess reserves leak into the system, Bernanke has enough sitting there to make Zimbabwe look like a model of prudent money management. As per usual, Bernanke has most of the media and Fed watchers looking at the wrong card.
Forget about QE3, keep your eye on excess reserves. Excess reserves are funds that are not in the system bidding up prices, but when they enter the system by banks using them to make loans, have the potential to result in a multiple of their size, when they impact the money supply. Because of this potential for multiple size impact, excess reserve entering the economy are considered high-powered money.

We would have never even been in this position if we had never allowed the Federal Reserve to be created and had never gotten 14 trillion dollars in debt.  But now America has a debt problem that can never be solved under the current system.  We are locked into a debt spiral from which there is no escape.
Last year, the U.S. government spent more on interest on the national debt than on the following departments combined....

*The Department of Health and Human Services
*The Department of Energy
*The Department of Veterans Affairs
*The Department of Justice
*The Department of Homeland Security
*The Department of Agriculture
*The Treasury Department
*The Department of Labor

Ouch!

But right now the U.S. is still able to borrow tons of money at super low interest rates.

So what happens if interest rates go up?

It could potentially be catastrophic.

That is why the decision by S&P to downgrade its outlook on U.S. government debt was such a big thing the other day.  The U.S. still has a "AAA" rating, but S&P is warning that the AAA rating is in danger.

So what would it mean if the U.S. lost the AAA rating that it currently holds?

The Washington Post recently described it this way....

A credit rating downgrade for the United States would spell even more financial trouble for the U.S. government, hampering its ability to borrow money as investors demand higher yields to make up for the increased risk. That would cause its national debt to balloon further and increase the need to hike taxes or make even more painful cuts in spending.

But the U.S. government continues to borrow money like there is no tomorrow and Ben Bernanke and his friends at the Fed continue to recklessly print money.

As bad as things may seem for many of you right now, the truth is that what we are experiencing at the moment is a "false bubble of prosperity".  Things are eventually going to get much, much worse.

Enjoy this time of economic peace and stability while you still can.  Our leaders have absolutely destroyed our economic future and we are going to want to have some good memories to hold on to while we are living through economic hell in the years ahead.