Feel the Stimulus

Last week's release of first quarter GDP figures for the US confirmed what we already knew -- the government sector of the US economy is shrinking, and this is putting a sharp drag on economic growth.

During the first 3 months of 2011 the US economy grew at a rate of only 1.8%. This disappointing figure was substantially the result of cutbacks in government spending. If spending by all levels of government in the US had remained constant, the first quarter GDP growth rate would have been about 2.9% instead.

The following picture shows how much government spending has contributed to - or deducted from - economic growth in the US in each quarter since the start of 2009. Do you see that massive and sustained fiscal stimulus? No, neither do I.

To put this in context, let's take the longer view. The next chart shows government spending on final goods and services, broken into federal vs. state and local spending, since 2001. The shaded area marks the time since early 2009, when we supposedly were the beneficiaries of fiscal stimulus.


Actually, in light of this picture, and particularly considering the steady contraction in state and local government spending since early 2009, I feel almost impressed that the US economy has done as well as it has done against this headwind.

One of the biggest reasons that the US economy has done at all well in recent quarters is the relatively good performance of US net exports. Excluding petroleum imports (which have surged in recent months in dollar value, even though they have remained roughly constant in physical quantities), net exports from the US are doing better now than any time in the past 15 years. And for that we can thank (in part) the decline in the dollar. The following picture illustrates.


The dollar's decline (which essentially happened from 2002 to 2008) has helped to make US exports more competitive. The improvement in the US's net export position is also a reflection of the ongoing rebalancing that had to happen after the bubble years; as individuals in the US have been gradually paying down debts and fixing their balance sheets, this has helped to reduce the international borrowing needs of the US as a whole, which translates into a smaller deficit in net exports for the US.

So, to sum up, the situation seems to be this right now: despite the best efforts of the government sector to torpedo economic growth in the US, the international sector is working hard to help sustain economic growth. It's almost exactly the opposite of what many people would have predicted a couple of years ago.

Osama bin Laden Killed

The United States has killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and recovered his body, according to numerous media reports May 1 citing U.S. officials. U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to make an announcement on the subject. It is not clear precisely how bin Laden was killed or how his body was recovered, but the assertion that he is dead is significant.

Bin Laden had become the symbol of al Qaeda, even though the degree to which he commanded the organization was questionable. The symbolic value of his death is obvious. The United States can claim a great victory. Al Qaeda can proclaim his martyrdom.


It is difficult to understand what this means at this moment, but it permits the Obama administration to claim victory, at least partially, over al Qaeda. It also opens the door for the beginning of a withdrawal from Afghanistan, regardless of the practical impact of bin Laden’s death. The mission in Afghanistan was to defeat al Qaeda, and with his death, a plausible claim can be made that the mission is complete. Again speculatively, it will be interesting to see how this affects U.S. strategy there.

Equally possible is that this will trigger action by al Qaeda in bin Laden’s name. We do not know how viable al Qaeda is or how deeply compromised it was. It is clear that bin Laden’s cover had been sufficiently penetrated to kill him. If bin Laden’s cover was penetrated, then the question becomes how much of the rest of the organization’s cover was penetrated. It is unlikely, however, that al Qaeda is so compromised that it cannot take further action.

At this early hour, the only thing possible is speculation on the consequences of bin Laden’s death, and that speculation is inherently flawed. Still, the importance of his death has its consequences. Certainly one consequence will be a sense of triumph in the United States. To others, this will be another false claim by the United States. For others it will be a call to war. We know little beyond what we have been told, but we know it matters.


Read more: Red Alert: Osama bin Laden Killed | STRATFOR

Faculty posts in HNLU May-2011

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Hidayatullah National Law University (HNLU)
Post Uparwara, Tehsil Abhanpur, Raipur  (CG)
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HNLU is looking for eligible candidates for following posts of teaching and Non-Teaching positions :

1. Professor : 08 posts, Pay Scale : Rs.37400-67000 AGP Rs.10000/-
2. Associate Professor : 11 posts, Pay Scale : Rs.37400-67000 AGP Rs.9000/-
3. Assistant Professor : 18 posts, Pay Scale : Rs.15600-39100 AGP Rs.6000/-

Application Fee : D.D. of Rs.250/- (Rs.100/- for SC/ST) drawn in favour of "Registrar, Hidayatullah National Law University, Raipur".

How to Apply : Application in the prescribed format should be sent to “Registrar, Hidayatullah National Law University, Uparwara, Tehsil Abhanpur, District Raipur – 493661 (C.G.)” on or before 31/05/2011.

Detailed information  is available at http://hnlu.ac.in/home/2011/April/APPOINTMENT%20NOTIFICATION%20NO.%2001%20OF%202011.pdf  and application format is available at  http://hnlu.ac.in/home/2011/April/application%20form%20notification%20No%2001%20of%202011.pdf

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Obama's Intrade Reelection Odds And S&P Futures Jump On Announcement Of Bin Laden's Death

As of 1 AM, EST, New York, the Intrade security price for Obama winning reelection jumped 17.6 percent to 69.9 and S&P futures jumped 10.70, 0.79 percent. The increases are in response to the President's announcement of the killing of Osama Bin Laden and the US recovery and DNA identification of the body.

Where Were You On Super Bowl Weekend?

compliments of: tfmetalsreport.com


I was in Vegas with my friend, Sweetness. He and I gambled too much. Drank too much gin and played a little golf.

Where were you? Did you watch the game? Perhaps you had a party? Maybe you're not an american football fan so you spent the weekend relaxing and catching up. Either way, like me, you had no way of knowing what was going on behind the scenes.

My next question is: Where was Ben Bernanke? Where was Tim Geithner? Where were the rest of the Fed governors and the heads of the TBTF banks? We may never know, though history one day may record their actions for posterity.


Why do I ask and why was February 4, 2011 so important? In hindsight, it is clear that 2/4/11 was the day that the Fed's hand was forced. A critical moment in time had come. The ruinous implications of the Fed's quantitative easing policy had been made clear. That weekend, both the dollar index and the long bond were moving toward critical, long-term support. Both could not be saved and a decision had to be made.

Sometime over Super Bowl weekend it was decided. Your monetary "officials" chose to preserve their own power at your expense. Why do I say this? Three months on, it's clear that the decision was made to support the long bond at all costs, to the detriment of the dollar. The global reserve currency was sacrificed on the altar of low interest rates and the maintenance of the Fed/TBTF/Govt ponzi. Because of this decision millions, even billions, of people will suffer. The inflation that is coming will spark food shortages and protest. This unrest may/will lead to war. All of this so that the Fed can maintain their power, the TBTF and primary dealer banks can remain afloat and the bankrupt U.S. government can continue printing and spending money, thereby allowing elected officials to escape the scrutiny that would come from actually leading. Neither history nor The Almighty will judge their selfish and cruel actions well.

Here are the charts that prove this out, beginning with the dollar or, as we call it here, the POSX.

As you can see, post 2/4 the dollar actually rallied for a week. It has since declined by almost 8%.

The critical chart on 2/4 was the U.S. Long Bond. The "long bond" is a futures contract on the 30-year U.S. treasury bond. This contract has been in an uptrend for nearly 29 years, from a bottom in 1982. The trendline lays somewhere around 114 to 115, depending upon how accurately you draw it. This was an important topic back in February. For example, here's a thread from 2/9/11:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/santas-pillars.html
With the decision made to let the dollar die in order to preserve The Ponzi, the long bond suddenly reversed and has since traded much higher.

 

Let's judge the practical, short-term impact of this decision by looking at our three favorite dollar-destruction hedges. First, here's crude:

 

Oh, that's right. The politicians want you to believe that its the oil companies and the evil, scawy specuwators that are driving oil higher. Anything to deflect the blame from themselves.

Now look at gold:

If you haven't yet protected yourself and purchased "wealth insurance" by buying gold, its OK. There's still time. But, if your normalcy bias and blind faith in the status quo keep you from buying some in the future in the face of all the evidence that the dollar is dying, you are the proverbial fool who deserves to be separated from his money.

Lastly, take a look at silver. As we know, silver is also being propelled by some, shall we say "enhanced", fundamentals. Regardless, this performance is stunning and reflects a grass roots, everyday-citizen demand for protection against fiat destruction. My advice is to get some, and take delivery, while you still can.

 

Finally, the intention here is not to say that the demise of the dollar is imminent. The death of the dollar is similar to that of a terminally-ill, cancer patient. There will be good days. There will be moments of hope. The dollar will bounce, probably from the area around 72. The long bond will peak and consolidate in the area around 124. The PMs will correct again soon giving you another buying opportunity. In the end, however, the fate of the dollar was sealed over the weekend of Super Bowl 45. The Packers won but we all lost. For the Steelers, there's always next year. For us, nothing but an uncertain and perilous future.

Read this article and more at tfmetalsreport.com

Railway Protection Force Sub-Inspector vacancy May-2011

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Government of India
Ministry of Railways
Railway Protection Force / Railway Protection Special Force (RPF / RPSF)

Advertisement No. 2/2011

Recruitment of Sub-Inspector (Male/Female) in RPF/RPSF


Applications are invited from eligible male / female candidates for filling up the following  posts of Constables in Railway Protection Force / Railway Protection Special Force (Published at governmentjobss.blogspot.com):

• Sub-Inspector : 511 posts (UR-311, SC-69, ST-40, OBC-91), Pay Scale : Rs.9300-34800/- Grade Pay Rs.4200/, Qualification : Graduate or equivalent, Age : 20-25 years as on 01/07/2011

 Application Fee : Rs.150/- in the form of Indian Postal Order/ Bank Draft in favour of The Financial Advisor and Chief Accounts Officer ........ Railway at  (Allahabad/ Kolkata/ Mumbai/ Secunderabad). No fee for Women/ SC/ ST/ Ex.-SM/ Economic Backwards and Minorities.

How to apply : The applications in the prescribed format should be sent to the Chief Security Commissioner of  North Central Railway/ South Eastern Railway/ Central Railway/ Southern Central  Railway as the full address is provided in the detailed advertisement within 30 days  (37 days for the candidates from far-flung areas) (published on 30/04/2011)
 
For more information and application form, please visit  http://indianrailways.gov.in or please see Employment News dated 30/04/2011 to 06/05/2011 page no. 2.


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PPP-ML(Q) Alliance: to Protect Moonas's Corruption Or for Masses' Intrest?

 By :-  Muhammad Amin Asif
As it is hot news that Pakistan People"s Party PPP and Muslim League (Q) are going to make a new alliance for the betterment of Pakistani peoples.first of all let we take a look what the leaders of both parties say.

Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani Sunday termed his party’s alliance with Q-League as being in interest of country, for its stability and need of the hour, Geo News reported.
Talking to media after issuing condolence with former Lahore city Nazim Mian Aamir Mehmood over sad demise of his mother, the premier described alliance with PML-Q ‘against no political force’.

Pakistan Muslim League-Q chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain said on Wednesday his party had completed a series of consultations on PPP?s offer to join the ruling coalition and it would announce its decision soon. During a brief chat with a group of reporters after a meeting with a three-member delegation of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement headed by Dr Farooq Sattar at the residence of PML-Q parliamentary leader in the National Assembly Faisal Saleh Hayat, he denied reports that his party had presented to the PPP a list of demands including the ministries it wanted. ?All talk about ministries having been allotted, flagged cars standing ready and Sherwanis having been stitched is baseless,? he said. Chaudhry Shujaat said he had told President Asif Ali Zardari that he would take a final decision on his offer to join the coalition only after consultations with leaders and workers of his party and this process would definitely take time
. 
 Unfortunately Pakistani society is badly divided into two main classes.

1.Haves                            2. Have Nots

Every member of "haves "  class is directly or indirectly attached to political class.If he is not politician himself, he tries to take part in Pakistani politics.by  all means  whether he has qualification for this or not. The only qualification for this class is money,  no other qualification required .whether it is earned through right means or wrong means. To become  rich in Pakistan corruption is short cut . which from last 64 years is on going .Most corrupts are big leaders of Pakistani Politics .They  have become a much strong and organized class .they do not need to pay income tax even because it is other blessing of black money, such money is exempted from  income tax. Only this class is able to protect each other as they are well organized . This story is not of one prince Moonas Ilahi  .All Princes of this society are doing same, their elders being strong figures of society are protecting their corruption rather encouraging them . Beauricracy of this country is helping team or thier Team B.These are also appointed on political basie,not on merit.All the institutes and departments of countyr are biend looted by these.Strong and profitable Institutes of this country like PIA,Pakistan steel ,PEPCO and other are going to become bankcrrupt. Bad manangement of currupt and unable people have become cancer for the society.
No merit for anythinbg ,only merit is affiliation to this class nothing else.Team 'B'id also haming the nation like parasites.

On the Other hand class belonging to "Have Nots" class is unable to survive now. but there tragedy is that they  are weak as well as unorganized class.they are individuals  where as corrupt class is well organized .they protect the interests of each other. Law has been for sale in this county for decades unfortunately.


Most painful  aspect of  this  picture  is that all is done at the name of  betterment of masses,Funds taken in the name of  development and betterment of people,10 percent of those actually reaches to the said projects. 90 percent goes to the pockets of politicians , BUREAUCRATS  and for their princes luxuries. This Alliance is nothing else but a step toward protection of Monas Ilahi and chuadhry brothers. .Who will come forward  to organize the second class which is 78 percent of total population.This class should become united if they further want to lessen or end their exploitation. But is to hard. 
Society is badly waiting for another
Hazrat Umer Farooq R.A..
Or
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin  to come. 
It is time to wake up otherwise remaining istitutes of Pakistan will also sink.